Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59c80a5a6122ce09f671effdc52514166cab17410b3c8fb96d6a38ccc7bb11ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9453…bc37backed Yes | 3c | 8,800$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x847d…1ba7backed Yes | 2c | 1,531$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 1,398$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 5c | 1,249$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 2c | 1,164$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 1c | 999.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…a996backed Yes | 12c | 806.93$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 5c | 735.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 3c | 555.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80c…a113backed Yes | 2c | 520.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 4c | 512.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e7…10c0backed Yes | 7c | 490.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 454.53$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 80c | 449.86$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.04 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 14c | 388.4$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…ba96backed Yes | 4c | 355.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa7…bb0fbacked Yes | 6c | 350.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa550…836fbacked Yes | 3c | 340.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 30c | 313.07$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.11 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 292.13$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 5c | 278.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad3a…80e8backed Yes | 17c | 251.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 16c | 247.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe509…7387backed Yes | 22c | 223.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 17c | 197.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 18c | 196.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 183.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 9c | 165.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 8c | 163.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 155.55$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 14c | 149.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 79c | 147.35$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked Yes | 9c | 139.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 131.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes | 18c | 128.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa322…dd03backed Yes | 25c | 123.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 28c | 123$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 121.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e93…78a6backed Yes | 20c | 113.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 25c | 111.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 111.45$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Yes | 29c | 103.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 32c | 97.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784b…f19ebacked Yes | 26c | 96.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f1…9833backed Yes | 19c | 88.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 79c | 81.53$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed No | 73c | 80.85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 20c | 78.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 27c | 78.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 74c | 78.07$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 25c | 76.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…c559backed Yes | 28c | 69.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed No | 78c | 68.93$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5194…1dcabacked Yes | 25c | 67.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…e158backed Yes | 22c | 66.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 70c | 64.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdd…ea7fbacked No | 78c | 62.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x132f…9a22backed Yes | 32c | 61.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 22c | 59.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 73c | 58.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 69c | 53.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 24c | 51.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 30c | 48.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 71c | 48.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 70c | 46.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 72c | 45.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4968…cda7backed Yes | 32c | 42.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0a…5270backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fb…4b6ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 31c | 39.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd88…8bcabacked Yes | 30c | 35.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 32.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 76c | 28.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 27.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x892c…2605backed No | 77c | 25.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaae3…f897backed No | 76c | 23.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5d…d93fbacked No | 77c | 22.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91e…fa48backed No | 70c | 21.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed No | 72c | 20.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 16.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…20e0backed No | 72c | 15.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…e1b2backed No | 77c | 15.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 60 | 71.7%43 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe9…c6dcbacked No | 73c | 15.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe0…192abacked No | 80c | 14.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 76c | 13.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on March 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on March 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.