TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$51,018
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,155

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,018 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9453…bc37backed Yes3c8,800$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201323.1%3 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-51.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x847d…1ba7backed Yes2c1,531$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes1c1,398$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.071,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes5c1,249$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1346824.4%114 W · 354 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes2c1,164$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.351,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes1c999.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.26004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8907…a996backed Yes12c806.93$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.511735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-46.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes5c735.41$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6626434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes3c555.71$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.932,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd80c…a113backed Yes2c520.96$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.424712.8%6 W · 41 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-74%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked Yes4c512.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8159440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e7…10c0backed Yes7c490.68$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.43132.3%10 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes13c454.53$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No80c449.86$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.041,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes14c388.4$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.511,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd833…ba96backed Yes4c355.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4912630.2%38 W · 88 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fa7…bb0fbacked Yes6c350.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7760%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa550…836fbacked Yes3c340.61$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes30c313.07$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1123823.9%57 W · 181 L-0.8wins0.00per pick24cpaid+11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No76c292.13$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.853,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x594e…1c11backed Yes5c278.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.766144.5%294 W · 367 L+57.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+26.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xad3a…80e8backed Yes17c251.17$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.67166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-87.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed Yes16c247.85$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8143525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe509…7387backed Yes22c223.24$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.152722.2%6 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes17c197.75$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6498738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes18c196.46$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3921235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes17c183.29$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.621,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes9c165.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.951,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes8c163.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2992028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No76c155.55$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.314,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Yes14c149.91$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.495226.9%14 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No79c147.35$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0286050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaafb…e81ebacked Yes9c139.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5915275.7%115 W · 37 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes24c131.3$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.979,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes18c128.56$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.572520%5 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa322…dd03backed Yes25c123.33$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.821526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes28c123$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4473927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes27c121.04$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.177,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e93…78a6backed Yes20c113.96$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.236418.8%12 W · 52 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-48.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0057…b1c7backed Yes25c111.56$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3614826.4%39 W · 109 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No70c111.45$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.388,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa233…dfe8backed Yes29c103.44$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3013514.8%20 W · 115 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-54.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes32c97.68$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8814834.5%51 W · 97 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x784b…f19ebacked Yes26c96.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.094845.8%22 W · 26 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4f1…9833backed Yes19c88.61$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0660%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb55c…04eabacked No79c81.53$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4320172.6%146 W · 55 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick76cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a4c…1116backed No73c80.85$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.728851.1%45 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3680…f087backed Yes20c78.58$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9924432.8%80 W · 164 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x94e6…0a73backed Yes27c78.38$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.427841%32 W · 46 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No74c78.07$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1270770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes25c76.62$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1543238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d6b…c559backed Yes28c69.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.552832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4107…c4c5backed No78c68.93$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.826642.4%28 W · 38 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5194…1dcabacked Yes25c67.92$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.12336.1%2 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.13per pick19cpaid-73.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x610b…e158backed Yes22c66.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.696018.3%11 W · 49 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc970…e315backed No70c64.6$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.66553.8%35 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdd…ea7fbacked No78c62.77$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.811338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick58cpaid-46.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x132f…9a22backed Yes32c61.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.54728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes22c59.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0149038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No73c58.11$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.676371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f12…7057backed No69c53.7$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8319259.9%115 W · 77 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes24c51.96$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.321,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a23…fd22backed Yes30c48.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.839530.5%29 W · 66 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No71c48.87$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.071,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No70c46.79$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0427167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc5b…619abacked No72c45.94$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8627464.6%177 W · 97 L-1.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4968…cda7backed Yes32c42.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.735147.1%24 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b0a…5270backed Yes30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+17.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5fb…4b6ebacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c81…25cabacked Yes31c39.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1112233.6%41 W · 81 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd88…8bcabacked Yes30c35.57$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.751747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No76c32.86$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.892,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1566141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cc7…54abbacked No76c28.77$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9918650.5%94 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No75c27.79$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.961,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x892c…2605backed No77c25.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.853243.8%14 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-40.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaae3…f897backed No76c23.33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.62263.6%14 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick73cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c5d…d93fbacked No77c22.78$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd91e…fa48backed No70c21.23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.32771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+28.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3837…c507backed No72c20.35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6910444.2%46 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No71c16.38$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.822,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe84…20e0backed No72c15.66$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.385154.9%28 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x246d…e1b2backed No77c15.08$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.476071.7%43 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe9…c6dcbacked No73c15.02$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.992055%11 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick67cpaid-21.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfe0…192abacked No80c14.7$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.94850%4 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-34.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No76c13.28$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.1954966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.