Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97f6ec1db254403dd846405e7f8e8e3c25a10f6bb3cb53efaa64b76fc6306f17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x847d…1ba7backed Yes | 1c | 4,399$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb088…ee40backed Yes | 1c | 3,900$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…4cf3backed Yes | 1c | 1,953$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…ba96backed Yes | 2c | 1,350$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 4c | 994.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa550…836fbacked Yes | 1c | 839.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 6c | 614$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 511.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c13…c164backed Yes | 3c | 504.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +229.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e7…10c0backed Yes | 6c | 402.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 18c | 399.68$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.47 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4acc…9bdabacked Yes | 3c | 346.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…a727backed Yes | 6c | 341.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Yes | 16c | 328.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 12c | 311.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 14c | 307.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 254.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 21c | 224.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5692…7236backed Yes | 16c | 211.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad3a…80e8backed Yes | 6c | 208.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x132f…9a22backed Yes | 19c | 205.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4611…3790backed Yes | 18c | 178.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda99…322fbacked Yes | 15c | 173.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 91 | 13.2%12 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e23…7896backed Yes | 8c | 127.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 12c | 126.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8171…66a5backed Yes | 18c | 123.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 120.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 9c | 116.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0a…a5b1backed Yes | 17c | 116.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…c559backed Yes | 16c | 92.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 15c | 85.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f1…9833backed Yes | 20c | 82.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3b…b989backed Yes | 18c | 65.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 80c | 39.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 80c | 29.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 79c | 22.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b37…f13abacked No | 77c | 19.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 79c | 17.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 15.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on March 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on March 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.