Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc90a89b34f90e65f1e9fecc0776568a370855804fb6ef605bbb0d7fa11b162c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf574…4f67backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…a955backed Yes | 4c | 6,918$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.72 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,071$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.51 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 78c | 703.14$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.91 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 670.4$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e9…fba8backed Yes | 26c | 597.61$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.15 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 535.15$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 11c | 457.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 440.38$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 10c | 408.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 23c | 406.95$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.61 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 74c | 359.78$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.54 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 24c | 353.3$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.33 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 24c | 327.88$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.17 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 73c | 297.66$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.01 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed Yes | 8c | 284$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 249.18$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 181.06$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed Yes | 32c | 156.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 133.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 23c | 125.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 121.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 79c | 107.5$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 79c | 106.53$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 76c | 101.03$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 101$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 78c | 101$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 23c | 99.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 78c | 98.68$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 18c | 96.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed Yes | 26c | 94.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 21c | 90.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked No | 73c | 83.61$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 76c | 82$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 21c | 75.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 25c | 66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 16c | 62.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 77c | 56.34$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed Yes | 25c | 53.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed Yes | 33c | 52.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 50.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…2ba8backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 80c | 49.21$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0299…8739backed Yes | 24c | 49.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 27c | 47.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…8952backed No | 75c | 42.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 24c | 41.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 29c | 36.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 31c | 35.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 72c | 27.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 76c | 26.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb61f…1ecdbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…0a2abacked No | 78c | 23.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked No | 78c | 21.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 80c | 21.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 72c | 20.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 78c | 20.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…bb03backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce6…99f3backed No | 74c | 19.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed No | 73c | 18.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed No | 74c | 18.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 79c | 17.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 74c | 16.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 68c | 16.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38ff…1acdbacked No | 75c | 16.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed No | 74c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 56°F or higher on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.