Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18fd006d7a4b8a2fbb4b0202e1f3b7e149f6aafb2e8a928f1f1805463092a339
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x468d…2201backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 68c | 877.88$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.81 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 27c | 799.97$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.69 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 568.25$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 62c | 428.59$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.88 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 51c | 426.85$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.68 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 66c | 405.37$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.57 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 49c | 385.01$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.01 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 33c | 298.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.07 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 263.5$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 74c | 254.42$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.99 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 49c | 242.47$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.69 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 36c | 212.19$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.12 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked No | 59c | 187.95$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.43 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 38c | 180.93$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.93 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 54c | 163.38$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.61 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 37c | 133.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.16 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 72c | 130.04$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 39c | 127.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.35 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 60c | 125.43$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 16c | 118.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 42c | 105.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 102.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.02 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 99.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.76 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 89.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 46c | 87.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 64c | 81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…b107backed Yes | 45c | 76.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Yes | 36c | 76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dad…f0dcbacked No | 47c | 69.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 37c | 67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 62.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e89…2f76backed Yes | 45c | 55.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 35c | 51.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 56c | 51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…4645backed No | 59c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0299…8739backed No | 55c | 49.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…2cbebacked No | 49c | 47.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 64c | 44.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 70c | 44.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfe…0fe0backed No | 70c | 43.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ff…1acdbacked No | 63c | 41.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 25c | 40.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 49c | 37.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 31c | 35.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 44c | 35.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 39c | 34.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ef…b7fcbacked No | 58c | 34.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed No | 61c | 31.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 60c | 30.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd85b…abf6backed Yes | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +136.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 64c | 29.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…0b9ebacked No | 43c | 28.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…bb03backed No | 60c | 28.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 56c | 27.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c55…a735backed No | 59c | 27.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x379e…ad96backed Yes | 43c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 75c | 26.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 24.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 64c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 53c | 23.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 62c | 23.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…7448backed No | 56c | 22.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 61c | 22.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed No | 58c | 22.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 65c | 21.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 61c | 20.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 63c | 20.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 71c | 14.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 56°F or higher on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.