Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a3981bfaa31b0144a51dc0b01a3c81756bce88b05c3d2e236108390dfb6fc6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 401.87$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 372.95$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.91 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 20c | 362.32$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 18c | 343.19$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 16c | 314.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 16c | 255.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 23c | 246.19$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 79c | 225.28$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed No | 79c | 216.95$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 212.75$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 17c | 194.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 21c | 181.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 21c | 173.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…b107backed Yes | 21c | 161.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 146.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 80c | 145.56$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 27c | 139.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…2cbebacked Yes | 17c | 115.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 13c | 112.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 22c | 87.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 22c | 85.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 14c | 80.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 71.85$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 78c | 68.05$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 21c | 65.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 77c | 61.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 19c | 60.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 21c | 59.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed Yes | 20c | 58.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 19c | 54.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d4…24e6backed Yes | 22c | 54.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed No | 78c | 52.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 50.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 29c | 41.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 80c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…f045backed No | 76c | 37.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 35 | 80%28 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 74c | 24.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…0a2abacked No | 79c | 21.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 79c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 74c | 19.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 72c | 19.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 74c | 15.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 74 | 70.3%52 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d18…eae7backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 56°F or higher on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.