TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,896
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,475

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,896 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd863…6cf6backed No44c2,300$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes67c1,285$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.397146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ee6…7065backed Yes56c1,200$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5282100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+55.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…c61bbacked No1c1,113$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.365655.4%31 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc64…7815backed Yes56c1,100$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4842100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+55.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No3c1,062$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4128737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes80c821.32$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.616,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No15c555$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.914,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No5c527.41$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4361821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e10…1186backed Yes78c500$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1091060%6 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick73cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes71c481.67$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.641,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2177…3856backed Yes80c376.06$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes73c342.08$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.91,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37b3…062cbacked No38c340.79$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.82425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-52.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes54c276.99$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.2733139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2be…4a4cbacked Yes60c246.5$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.822445.8%11 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72b4…6987backed Yes65c231.05$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.091369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2bb7…ee95backed No35c213.08$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.58110%0 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27dd…b696backed Yes52c209.9$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.553644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No43c200.28$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.158,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2fe…f0fbbacked Yes75c187.65$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.651040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-38.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No21c183.32$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.987,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No33c179.81$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.561,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes79c171.14$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9431341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8796…e255backed No36c162.67$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7411925.2%30 W · 89 L-14.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-37.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked No45c159.98$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.193652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes63c158.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.1132444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No44c156.87$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.141,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4107…c4c5backed No33c154.79$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.186642.4%28 W · 38 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d1c…f13cbacked Yes65c153.11$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.59955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No7c150$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.552245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe472…4360backed Yes58c150$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.515328.3%15 W · 38 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No35c142.53$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5098571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed No24c140.69$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9fd…f242backed Yes66c140.51$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.243351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes50c139.99$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7014338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No52c131.42$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.583,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No21c130.13$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.444,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64a4…c103backed Yes51c127.51$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.0311038.2%42 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29e1…f717backed No33c121.19$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.48520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-68.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed Yes45c120.93$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.0943525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No25c115.73$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No51c107.31$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.771,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes52c106$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.71,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b3…5bafbacked Yes72c106$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe928…3b65backed No48c105.67$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.83560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+42.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes80c103.48$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7645148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes76c101.39$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.331,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdeb2…1080backed No47c100.66$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.81742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff69…16b5backed Yes54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463324.2%8 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-42.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae8…5a42backed No17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174831.3%15 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+52.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226950.7%35 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbed1…adf1backed Yes56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.151346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34b8…ca37backed Yes78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225100%5 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+67.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes74c94$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3795933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0943…1019backed Yes54c92.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.041070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+20.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No48c90$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.492,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No50c90$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4566141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa09f…f686backed Yes67c84.57$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.912100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes74c80$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.811145%50 W · 61 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes49c79.88$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8815133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3e4…cdc1backed No50c77.66$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8310562.9%66 W · 39 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2d6…9b4dbacked Yes52c76.37$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.522147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x91db…e10abacked No38c75.45$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed Yes63c73.75$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0835465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes64c69.25$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.845841.4%24 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd91e…fa48backed No31c64.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.76771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+28.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes49c61.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8119541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc585…c51ebacked Yes67c60.04$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.042657.7%15 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed No40c59.86$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7847442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes67c58.59$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.63,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No24c58.26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.091,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f6f…d78bbacked Yes74c57.14$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.86475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1395…b329backed Yes47c54.74$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.942536%9 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1927…9649backed Yes68c54.66$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.473040%12 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes54c52.32$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3132352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked No59c51.71$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5119152.9%101 W · 90 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x97dc…f612backed Yes78c51.18$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.182085%17 W · 3 L+5.4wins+0.27per pick58cpaid+48.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6316…7488backed Yes52c51$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4815334%52 W · 101 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36bb…e181backed Yes58c50.81$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5112033.3%40 W · 80 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x690b…9145backed No25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-78.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x65b7…ee5dbacked Yes70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156144.3%27 W · 34 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd561…d81dbacked Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253050%15 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x571e…67b2backed No46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2641733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x93f3…5d04backed No47c49.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed No46c49.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9944448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x028d…feccbacked Yes51c49.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.491643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad0b…9eb1backed No36c49.7$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.89520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-63.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd342…1ad9backed Yes41c49.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.11966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+33.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No50c47.37$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5352571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes53c47.17$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1710354.4%56 W · 47 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed No28c47.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.188028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5333…df0dbacked No40c44.9$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9640%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No48c43.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1748672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4791…3b1abacked No51c41.82$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.172552%13 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.