Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe799c3c7de22e5ab392bb4593ba64e2aa5668fc179847126490af85ac4526b31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd863…6cf6backed No | 44c | 2,300$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 67c | 1,285$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.39 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee6…7065backed Yes | 56c | 1,200$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…c61bbacked No | 1c | 1,113$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc64…7815backed Yes | 56c | 1,100$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 3c | 1,062$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 80c | 821.32$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.61 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 15c | 555$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.91 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 5c | 527.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…1186backed Yes | 78c | 500$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 71c | 481.67$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.64 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2177…3856backed Yes | 80c | 376.06$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 73c | 342.08$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.9 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b3…062cbacked No | 38c | 340.79$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 54c | 276.99$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.27 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2be…4a4cbacked Yes | 60c | 246.5$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.82 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…6987backed Yes | 65c | 231.05$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.09 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…ee95backed No | 35c | 213.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.58 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27dd…b696backed Yes | 52c | 209.9$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.55 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 43c | 200.28$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fe…f0fbbacked Yes | 75c | 187.65$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 183.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 33c | 179.81$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 79c | 171.14$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 36c | 162.67$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 45c | 159.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.19 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 63c | 158.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.11 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 44c | 156.87$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed No | 33c | 154.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked Yes | 65c | 153.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…4360backed Yes | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.51 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 35c | 142.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 24c | 140.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fd…f242backed Yes | 66c | 140.51$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 50c | 139.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 52c | 131.42$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.58 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 21c | 130.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 51c | 127.51$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e1…f717backed No | 33c | 121.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 45c | 120.93$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.09 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 25c | 115.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 51c | 107.31$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 52c | 106$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b3…5bafbacked Yes | 72c | 106$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe928…3b65backed No | 48c | 105.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 80c | 103.48$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 76c | 101.39$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb2…1080backed No | 47c | 100.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…16b5backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae8…5a42backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…adf1backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b8…ca37backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 74c | 94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0943…1019backed Yes | 54c | 92.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 48c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09f…f686backed Yes | 67c | 84.57$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 49c | 79.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed No | 50c | 77.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d6…9b4dbacked Yes | 52c | 76.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91db…e10abacked No | 38c | 75.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 63c | 73.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes | 64c | 69.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91e…fa48backed No | 31c | 64.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 49c | 61.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc585…c51ebacked Yes | 67c | 60.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 40c | 59.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 67c | 58.59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 24c | 58.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6f…d78bbacked Yes | 74c | 57.14$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1395…b329backed Yes | 47c | 54.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1927…9649backed Yes | 68c | 54.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 54c | 52.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 59c | 51.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97dc…f612backed Yes | 78c | 51.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 52c | 51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 58c | 50.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x690b…9145backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…d81dbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f3…5d04backed No | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…feccbacked Yes | 51c | 49.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…9eb1backed No | 36c | 49.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd342…1ad9backed Yes | 41c | 49.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 50c | 47.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 28c | 47.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5333…df0dbacked No | 40c | 44.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 48c | 43.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4791…3b1abacked No | 51c | 41.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.