Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc63f3b322c3b97ac8658cf1a32671b620960ac689d5f7db110c6322bc693500
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa88f…83ebbacked Yes | 0c | 28,958$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…d8cfbacked Yes | 0c | 27,385$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…8a7bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,704$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes | 12c | 1,874$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.81 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 8c | 1,781$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.07 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 12c | 1,515$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.65 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 9c | 1,309$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.73 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 4c | 800$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a5…859cbacked Yes | 8c | 779.54$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80c…a113backed Yes | 3c | 564.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 11c | 561.18$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 514.9$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 492.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.47 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 10c | 471.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc418…ec2bbacked Yes | 16c | 458.13$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 13c | 410.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 13c | 403.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…4360backed Yes | 8c | 396.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…056abacked Yes | 8c | 380.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 7c | 362.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 7c | 340.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874e…016fbacked Yes | 19c | 296.01$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 10c | 295.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 6c | 287.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3efd…b982backed Yes | 9c | 266.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 7c | 264.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…16b5backed Yes | 10c | 255.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 7c | 244.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 11c | 207.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…68f9backed Yes | 7c | 204.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 202.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…29efbacked Yes | 11c | 202.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb62…d14fbacked Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 26c | 199.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae8…5a42backed Yes | 7c | 186$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 7c | 164$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc38c…fd95backed Yes | 8c | 159.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 10c | 152.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed Yes | 10c | 152.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 8c | 149.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 17c | 149.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8001…c76fbacked Yes | 14c | 142.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 133.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x99d5…9622backed Yes | 10c | 129.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 8c | 128$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 11c | 120.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b1…9bdabacked Yes | 9c | 117.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3b…b989backed Yes | 11c | 113.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed Yes | 15c | 111.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…0634backed Yes | 25c | 102.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 20c | 101.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…6987backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ad…8db9backed Yes | 21c | 96.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 19c | 91.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8171…66a5backed Yes | 16c | 91.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…24a5backed Yes | 24c | 85.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 16c | 84.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0a…0a1abacked Yes | 17c | 84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 13c | 78.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 67.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda99…322fbacked Yes | 17c | 64.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 91 | 13.2%12 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 77c | 53.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 78c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 23.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 78c | 19.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.