Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x207283a33905a71dbe01c8fc46bdef73a2cc505ea16dfb0b7c573b519573fd1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 4c | 5,858$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.09 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes | 5c | 3,336$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.15 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52fd…d12cbacked Yes | 32c | 3,093$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 3c | 2,797$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.05 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 4c | 1,595$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.74 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 9c | 1,117$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.31 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdec9…57d1backed No | 68c | 1,032$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 1,032$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.45 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb283…ec28backed No | 68c | 1,031$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fff…3c86backed No | 68c | 1,030$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 5c | 840.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 820.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…056abacked Yes | 3c | 819.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea4…47dbbacked Yes | 3c | 682$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b33…044ebacked Yes | 7c | 673.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 600.72$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.89 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 9c | 449.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked Yes | 4c | 400.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…68f9backed Yes | 5c | 363.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 10c | 303.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 10c | 284$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 268.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 12c | 252$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 250.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 14c | 194.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8e…20fabacked Yes | 33c | 182.08$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 15c | 169.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 17c | 166.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1590…000dbacked Yes | 9c | 165.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98a…0550backed Yes | 12c | 160$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 17c | 159.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 28c | 149.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 67c | 148.63$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.76 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x518e…0913backed Yes | 16c | 147.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked Yes | 25c | 146.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc6…e280backed Yes | 15c | 139.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 11c | 131.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 32c | 124$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…f224backed Yes | 18c | 121.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 9c | 118.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 12c | 117.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 16c | 111.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 22c | 110.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 33c | 105$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 68c | 105$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 10c | 102.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…4c83backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b3…5bafbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…adf1backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…16b5backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a02…a48dbacked No | 73c | 98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 32c | 94.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa329…db02backed No | 71c | 93.76$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee5e…7f1cbacked Yes | 25c | 91.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…1274backed Yes | 39c | 90.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc57a…5759backed No | 75c | 89.61$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 88.88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 80c | 88.23$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b1…9bdabacked Yes | 19c | 84.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 78c | 80.84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 32c | 78.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 20c | 72.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d6…9b4dbacked Yes | 32c | 71.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 69c | 69.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb7…2077backed Yes | 29c | 69.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 36c | 69.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 58.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99c7…9acfbacked Yes | 21c | 54.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 50.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee38…fd31backed Yes | 24c | 50.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb39c…60ccbacked No | 78c | 50.45$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 64c | 46.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fd…f242backed Yes | 28c | 45.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1395…b329backed Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…ab30backed Yes | 29c | 44.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…335fbacked No | 70c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c3…5bf0backed No | 80c | 41.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 30c | 41.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…5af6backed No | 73c | 39.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed Yes | 36c | 38.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb2…1080backed Yes | 34c | 33.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2f…30a1backed Yes | 32c | 31.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 68c | 29.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 80c | 25.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd25c…c945backed Yes | 40c | 25.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed No | 71c | 24.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed No | 64c | 23.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 66c | 22.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed No | 71c | 20.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…4a06backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf794…aba2backed No | 79c | 17.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.