TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$61,635
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$65,138

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,635 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes4c5,858$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.0935018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes5c3,336$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.152520%5 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52fd…d12cbacked Yes32c3,093$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.7620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes3c2,797$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.0548331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes4c1,595$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7485330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes9c1,117$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.3128718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdec9…57d1backed No68c1,032$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.142100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes10c1,032$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.454,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb283…ec28backed No68c1,031$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.922100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fff…3c86backed No68c1,030$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes5c840.92$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.461821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes9c820.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.566,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x17dd…056abacked Yes3c819.11$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.546913%9 W · 60 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-63.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ea4…47dbbacked Yes3c682$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.64560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b33…044ebacked Yes7c673.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes14c600.72$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.898,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes9c449.05$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0664333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb701…8c1bbacked Yes4c400.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1512070.8%85 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9536…68f9backed Yes5c363.19$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.286121.3%13 W · 48 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+85.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes10c303.57$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes10c284$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.091,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes12c268.71$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.983,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes12c252$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.371,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes7c250.66$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.787,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes19c200$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e24…7379backed Yes14c194.36$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8245619.1%87 W · 369 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8e…20fabacked Yes33c182.08$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.981020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes15c169.28$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.115133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes17c166.34$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.611,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1590…000dbacked Yes9c165.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb98a…0550backed Yes12c160$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8875%6 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c82…f315backed Yes17c159.69$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7113930.2%42 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed Yes28c149.98$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4243525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No67c148.63$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.7686050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x518e…0913backed Yes16c147.16$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.16616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2b5…47bfbacked Yes25c146.93$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.417633.5%59 W · 117 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc6…e280backed Yes15c139.98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212015%3 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-74.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xebee…7f68backed Yes11c131.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.899529.5%28 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes32c124$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.131,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc80…f224backed Yes18c121.25$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.061947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+27.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes9c118.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.172419.5%23 W · 218 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58a4…7456backed Yes12c117.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7423022.6%52 W · 178 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x052e…ade1backed Yes16c111.69$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6128329.3%83 W · 200 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8165…97b8backed Yes22c110.43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0418550.3%93 W · 92 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes33c105$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.068551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3182…4ff7backed No68c105$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.614168.1%96 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes10c102.89$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2945148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.41,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8288…4c83backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154535.6%16 W · 29 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc6b3…5bafbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbed1…adf1backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.031346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff69…16b5backed Yes30c99.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303324.2%8 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-42.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes21c99.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110120.8%21 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a02…a48dbacked No73c98$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.51683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick70cpaid+19.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe768…10efbacked Yes32c94.59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011355.8%63 W · 50 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa329…db02backed No71c93.76$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.74875%6 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee5e…7f1cbacked Yes25c91.09$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.041315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-60.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x094a…1274backed Yes39c90.61$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357728.6%22 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc57a…5759backed No75c89.61$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.61580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+51.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No70c88.88$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.263,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No80c88.23$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7542976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3b1…9bdabacked Yes19c84.68$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.14825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No78c80.84$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5229558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc250…5eafbacked Yes32c78.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.846325.4%16 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed Yes20c72.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.511,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2d6…9b4dbacked Yes32c71.13$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.742147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce1…c33abacked No69c69.51$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3314961.1%91 W · 58 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfb7…2077backed Yes29c69.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+98.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes36c69.04$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8711646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes34c58.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.939,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99c7…9acfbacked Yes21c54.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.59944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No70c50.79$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.193,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee38…fd31backed Yes24c50.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.373557.1%20 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb39c…60ccbacked No78c50.45$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.12138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes25c49.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.541733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No64c46.89$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8870770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9fd…f242backed Yes28c45.17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.563351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1395…b329backed Yes31c45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.82536%9 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07ac…ab30backed Yes29c44.51$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.776719.4%13 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a31…335fbacked No70c43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.96163.9%39 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x09c3…5bf0backed No80c41.75$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.351764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0057…b1c7backed Yes30c41.64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3314826.4%39 W · 109 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x675c…5af6backed No73c39.52$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.524967.3%33 W · 16 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb81…7b82backed Yes36c38.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.613053.1%69 W · 61 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid+0.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x36bb…e181backed Yes29c35$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1512033.3%40 W · 80 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdeb2…1080backed Yes34c33.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd2f…30a1backed Yes32c31.51$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.672466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc02…504dbacked No68c29.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.326365.1%41 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6721272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcdfb…f641backed No80c25.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.189164.8%59 W · 32 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd25c…c945backed Yes40c25.3$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b28…d9c1backed No71c24.08$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.086033.3%20 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3837…c507backed No64c23.31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3110444.2%46 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27fb…3f5ebacked No66c22.36$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.620942.1%88 W · 121 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4107…c4c5backed No71c20.62$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.916642.4%28 W · 38 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed No73c20.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5555538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1a0…4a06backed No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.915641.1%23 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf794…aba2backed No79c17.27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.622152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.