Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Mark Baisley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Colorado?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7391df4303788c6fe33c77afd7b87bd1d34359b6a5f00f5c68580db05eb463e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 25c | 2,022$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,511.51 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 9c | 1,633$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.16 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 74c | 1,581$1,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.01 | 115 | 22.6%26 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 792.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 15c | 771.27$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.47 | 106 | 22.6%24 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 74c | 750$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 74c | 750$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa067…a429backed Yes | 45c | 360$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 4c | 277.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 46c | 241.22$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.97 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 54c | 228.51$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.89 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked No | 6c | 223.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 104 | 1%1 W · 103 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 60c | 190.97$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 37c | 190.62$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.01 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 18c | 145.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 57c | 144.51$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.74 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 46c | 140.36$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.22 | 228 | 48.7%111 W · 117 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 26c | 119.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 39c | 119.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f63…2bb3backed No | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed Yes | 42c | 107.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…3252backed Yes | 49c | 89.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa8…75a6backed Yes | 50c | 89.1$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 30c | 81.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 42c | 71.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 53c | 67.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3802…c2bbbacked No | 53c | 62.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…01cbbacked Yes | 49c | 51.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…d561backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf278…a69dbacked Yes | 49c | 47.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f1…14b7backed Yes | 46c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 43.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 52c | 39.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 49c | 32.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed Yes | 49c | 30.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed No | 51c | 29.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…340bbacked Yes | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 49c | 26.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…7922backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…7e19backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked No | 78c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…c617backed Yes | 69c | 15.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…a6b7backed Yes | 70c | 14.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mark Baisley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Colorado?this page
- Will Dathan Jones be the Republican nominee for Senate in Colorado?No won
- Will George Washington Markert be the Republican nominee for Senate in Colorado?No won
- Will Janak Joshi be the Republican nominee for Senate in Colorado?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.