Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 2 above $180?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe02873d220ee07895e0ac31bb80dfb22da7d5f51b1a6e76611af687884a78773
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,536 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x700f…7b54backed Yes | 11c | 12,315$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,354.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 60c | 799.89$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.62 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 55c | 675.28$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.41 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32c4…d7ecbacked No | 35c | 666.28$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.45 | 348 | 39.1%136 W · 212 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 55c | 616.8$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.79 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…dc73backed Yes | 77c | 611.36$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.75 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x473f…7f23backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 42c | 419.89$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.83 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 51c | 389.36$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.71 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +8.7wins | +0.30per pick | 46cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9099backed No | 28c | 370.38$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe1…4769backed No | 50c | 356.28$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa854…3856backed No | 47c | 328.62$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.27 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Yes | 69c | 286.48$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.71 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad61…1fc2backed No | 42c | 286.38$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30cf…cf8ebacked No | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 40c | 203.61$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.91 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 57c | 203.16$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.93 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 46c | 186.35$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.72 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 177.24$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.26 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a02…c3fdbacked Yes | 75c | 147.45$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 71c | 145$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.85 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bc…2450backed Yes | 69c | 144.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2db…6865backed Yes | 26c | 129.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +152.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 22c | 110$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd8…d09ebacked Yes | 11c | 101$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…10adbacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Yes | 75c | 94.58$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 82.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.74 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f34…94d0backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x310a…91f3backed Yes | 77c | 64.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked No | 41c | 60.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 34c | 59.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 21c | 53.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 19cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2632…1b62backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af9…5bf2backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 29c | 43.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…27e2backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x962a…aa6cbacked Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116b…efbcbacked Yes | 27c | 39.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5e…4e7dbacked Yes | 52c | 38.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 46c | 36.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 60c | 35.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 31c | 35.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ae…0702backed Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 30c | 34.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 42c | 34.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6114…69dbbacked Yes | 53c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbab1…57eabacked Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8e…25f4backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d2…f7b6backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99c3…9defbacked Yes | 68c | 29.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf17e…e533backed Yes | 77c | 28.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0404…4719backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 51c | 26.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x708c…b1a2backed Yes | 71c | 25.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 71c | 21.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 2 above $180?this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 2 above $155?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 2 above $160?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 2 above $165?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 2 above $170?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 2 above $175?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 2 above $185?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 2 above $190?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 2 above $195?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 2 above $200?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 2 above $215?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.