TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 2 above $180?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,536

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,536 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x700f…7b54backed Yes11c12,315$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,354.6530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No36c1,000$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6408943.8%39 W · 50 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1755…5aacbacked Yes60c799.89$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.621,32646.9%622 W · 704 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed No55c675.28$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.4148234%164 W · 318 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x32c4…d7ecbacked No35c666.28$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.4534839.1%136 W · 212 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38d8…ea7cbacked No55c616.8$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.791,77949.1%873 W · 906 L+143.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc12a…dc73backed Yes77c611.36$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.754148.8%20 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-21.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x473f…7f23backed Yes23c434.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed No42c419.89$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.8399038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No51c389.36$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.712975.9%22 W · 7 L+8.7wins+0.30per pick46cpaid+58.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x4575…9099backed No28c370.38$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fe1…4769backed No50c356.28$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa854…3856backed No47c328.62$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.271435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-28.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed Yes69c286.48$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.711764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+24.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad61…1fc2backed No42c286.38$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30cf…cf8ebacked No43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes40c203.61$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.91258%2 W · 23 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick23cpaid-79.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6364…8316backed Yes57c203.16$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.9331036.1%112 W · 198 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes46c186.35$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.726150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No41c177.24$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.2686338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a02…c3fdbacked Yes75c147.45$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes71c145$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.8524356.8%138 W · 105 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2bc…2450backed Yes69c144.34$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2db…6865backed Yes26c129.9$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.54742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+152.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No22c110$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.816248.1%78 W · 84 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cd8…d09ebacked Yes11c101$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5bc…10adbacked No25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10924.3%4 W · 88 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed Yes75c94.58$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.991225%3 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-57.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No33c82.73$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7419934.2%68 W · 131 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed No41c80$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.471323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-60.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9f34…94d0backed Yes63c79.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x310a…91f3backed Yes77c64.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9f…624cbacked No41c60.21$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.733327.3%9 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed No34c59.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.3613147.3%62 W · 69 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No21c53.61$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.42837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick19cpaid+51.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2632…1b62backed Yes71c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0af9…5bf2backed No42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-38.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No29c43.56$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9651927.6%143 W · 376 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ba3…27e2backed No33c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x962a…aa6cbacked Yes71c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x116b…efbcbacked Yes27c39.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d5e…4e7dbacked Yes52c38.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes46c36.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes60c35.5$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1515947.8%76 W · 83 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed No31c35.47$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.498536.5%31 W · 54 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49ae…0702backed Yes35c35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No30c34.65$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.41,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes42c34.28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.49837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+88.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6114…69dbbacked Yes53c31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.43250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbab1…57eabacked Yes73c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.940%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0c8e…25f4backed No38c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x11d2…f7b6backed Yes67c29.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99c3…9defbacked Yes68c29.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf17e…e533backed Yes77c28.57$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0404…4719backed Yes70c28.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No51c26.51$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.951283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick62cpaid+27.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x708c…b1a2backed Yes71c25.2$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick69cpaid-56.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No71c21.46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1281240.3%327 W · 485 L+37.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.