Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd08af49a0f459afde8c9ebdd01d20c0eeaa0b880fe2462215cf6969ccbf00f56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfcda…bb51backed Yes | 79c | 1,360$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.23 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 16c | 509.44$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.78 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…4d82backed Yes | 40c | 400$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.77 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 41c | 335.07$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.53 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 326.44$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 5c | 308.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 71c | 299.55$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.62 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 26c | 280.6$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.95 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 60c | 272.27$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.36 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 32c | 220.83$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.82 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 206$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.05 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 7c | 199.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 165.94$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.41 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 30c | 149.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 55c | 135.23$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.71 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 134.79$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…f88dbacked Yes | 27c | 133$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.45 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x321f…6100backed Yes | 63c | 131.2$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 26c | 121.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.21 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 118.7$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.56 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 111.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked No | 73c | 101.86$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.57 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 28c | 101.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.12 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…ec02backed Yes | 32c | 100.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.93 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Yes | 52c | 99.66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 64c | 98.62$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…b96cbacked No | 50c | 95.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 30c | 93.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.59 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 27c | 93.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.94 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 34c | 92.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.14 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 43c | 92.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eed…d8ffbacked No | 62c | 89.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.31 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 88.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 28c | 88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…f0f0backed No | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 39c | 79.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 74c | 74.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 25c | 72.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b2…2c4abacked Yes | 42c | 70.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 29c | 69.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.69 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 27c | 64.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a37…1059backed Yes | 25c | 60.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 28c | 58.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 57.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 53c | 56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 33c | 51.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 38c | 50.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…186dbacked No | 53c | 50.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 48.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 75c | 46.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6958…2a41backed Yes | 58c | 42.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 73c | 41.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 36c | 40.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed No | 75c | 40.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 31c | 36.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 44c | 35.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ae…cabebacked Yes | 34c | 35.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +124.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 30c | 34.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 32.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…e203backed No | 71c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed No | 35c | 31.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes | 68c | 30.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6032…4245backed Yes | 34c | 30.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 27.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 73c | 27.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 62c | 26.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 69c | 25.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 73c | 25.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe2…c8f2backed Yes | 67c | 22.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…7448backed No | 64c | 21.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c69…9867backed No | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 73c | 19.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf833…0208backed No | 72c | 19.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.4wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…c6a2backed No | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc495…b421backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…5596backed No | 76c | 13.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3509…40f0backed No | 74c | 13.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 53°F or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 72°F or higher on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.