Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f95328a555c07cf309bb93310b462cdcede6b81b91fe4b82694652f9c0322af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 4c | 669.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…4d82backed Yes | 33c | 399.9$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 379.9$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 26c | 364.96$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.82 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 19c | 240.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 13c | 192$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 22c | 161.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf483…3f62backed Yes | 19c | 160$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 12c | 149.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…ec02backed Yes | 19c | 146.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 36c | 136.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…f88dbacked Yes | 20c | 133$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 15c | 123.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 120.6$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 119.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x09f6…f4f5backed Yes | 25c | 118.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 110.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 10c | 109.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 20c | 100.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 17c | 100.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 18c | 88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 78c | 85.51$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked No | 74c | 84.17$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 25c | 80.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 80.49$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed Yes | 23c | 78.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 70c | 71.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed No | 80c | 70.41$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 16c | 70.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4611…3790backed Yes | 18c | 57.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 27c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 26c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f3…92d6backed Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d18…eae7backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 80c | 30.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x649e…fd6abacked No | 75c | 30.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 76c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 78c | 25.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 72c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 74c | 22.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 21.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 15.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d74…3163backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…3666backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 53°F or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 72°F or higher on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.