Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x319373647b78b15500bd9f72ca3b426d65e4b2512042be7a440c042f1028d647
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 467.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 385$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 357.63$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.87 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…3cf9backed Yes | 8c | 333.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 10c | 258.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 7c | 217.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 217.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 8c | 188.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 15c | 187.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 7c | 179.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 10c | 168.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 18c | 156.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 22c | 143.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaccf…ffc6backed Yes | 11c | 139.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 12c | 139.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 15c | 134.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…f88dbacked Yes | 8c | 133$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87d9…5f20backed Yes | 8c | 126.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d4…24e6backed Yes | 11c | 121.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 16c | 100.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf138…befdbacked Yes | 23c | 84.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 43cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 16c | 82.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 25c | 73.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe573…ae05backed Yes | 18c | 72.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 79c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked No | 80c | 26.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 53°F or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 72°F or higher on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.