Stocks · resolved market
Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 3% on any day in Q1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c3f0f5b79d5fbbeb7f3f5b2c583974d97ee488f89fd578973473b21ace878d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes | 14c | 7,455$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.91 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c6…cb1fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,108$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 19c | 1,086$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.3 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a9…c455backed No | 67c | 1,021$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.87 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x294d…b362backed No | 69c | 873.49$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.65 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…6ca1backed No | 77c | 723.02$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…29dbbacked Yes | 29c | 670.86$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.74 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…fc2dbacked Yes | 32c | 596.7$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3a…49cfbacked Yes | 22c | 446.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…7c2ebacked Yes | 25c | 420$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc640…ccbebacked Yes | 25c | 400.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 27c | 348.02$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.7 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcb…e811backed Yes | 38c | 342$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad24…0445backed Yes | 30c | 302.06$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes | 35c | 257.9$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…e61cbacked Yes | 10c | 255.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 72c | 254.34$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.89 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 238.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…fccebacked Yes | 25c | 234.21$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 27c | 214.49$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 31c | 211$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5b…afe2backed Yes | 13c | 202$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2086…3c01backed Yes | 20c | 200.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 26c | 186.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b67…584fbacked Yes | 33c | 183.81$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2452…bcb8backed Yes | 31c | 146.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe3…305dbacked Yes | 25c | 145.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -71%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e57…55b7backed Yes | 38c | 141.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0f…e262backed Yes | 45c | 140.86$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 14c | 136.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 33c | 134.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84e5…bf1ebacked Yes | 35c | 132.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88c…10dcbacked Yes | 37c | 127.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf29…bd92backed Yes | 21c | 115$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…af18backed Yes | 28c | 113$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…d33dbacked Yes | 23c | 101.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…1fa8backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c7…65f0backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 17c | 99.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…6e4fbacked No | 79c | 99.02$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 76c | 98.43$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 75 | 22.7%17 W · 58 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bc…747abacked No | 53c | 97.57$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 23c | 93.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ff…3b59backed Yes | 35c | 88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 70c | 86.91$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +8.7wins | +0.30per pick | 46cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x35ec…2798backed Yes | 34c | 86.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +900%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…c57fbacked Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ab…2e0fbacked Yes | 34c | 81.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x654b…402dbacked Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 31c | 74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 26c | 73.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…09a0backed Yes | 34c | 71.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 24c | 67.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes | 25c | 55.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd95b…598abacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 21c | 53.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0c…47bfbacked Yes | 35c | 49.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +900%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…a7b6backed Yes | 28c | 46.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…0a4dbacked Yes | 45c | 44.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4218…ff0ebacked Yes | 34c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 80c | 41.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 40.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f71…b80ebacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…0db8backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98da…f00fbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55e1…772fbacked No | 62c | 28.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…17adbacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 72c | 27.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 60c | 25.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ec…1dacbacked No | 70c | 21.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 71c | 21.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +9.9wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 75 | 77.3%58 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 3% on any day in Q1?this page
- Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 2% on any day in Q1?Yes won
- Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 3% on any day in Q1?No won
- Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 4% on any day in Q1?No won
- Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 5% on any day in Q1?No won
- Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 2% on any day in Q1?Yes won
- Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 4% on any day in Q1?No won
- Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 5% on any day in Q1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.