Token Launches · resolved market
Will MegaETH launch a token by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e772c9dfc88c19355d73d26a1590fbdbbe7d0d9de0f1dfc21bb663e19a8e439
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $133,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 28c | 11,147$3,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,164.03 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee7…de5ebacked No | 61c | 5,567$3,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,188.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…b6c6backed Yes | 42c | 5,222$2,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,167.95 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x841f…806bbacked Yes | 22c | 4,758$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.5 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…44a2backed No | 74c | 2,160$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.69 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…d7dbbacked Yes | 22c | 2,050$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62f1…2fc2backed No | 49c | 2,045$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c23…c465backed Yes | 20c | 2,018$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.02 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -64%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6305…9d0bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,015$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…c9e3backed Yes | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…801dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,705$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 63c | 1,618$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.94 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x711f…f51bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,500$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed No | 51c | 1,348$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.34 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 3c | 1,101$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked No | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 26c | 999.97$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.99 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2d…f0cabacked No | 66c | 981.15$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x837f…0e16backed No | 59c | 770.09$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x222d…3349backed Yes | 2c | 757$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a0…5f55backed Yes | 31c | 739.1$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.22 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb4…0872backed No | 76c | 694.99$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.88 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 688.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…fdd2backed No | 75c | 677.92$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5174…0c80backed Yes | 34c | 663.2$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x537b…f0a0backed No | 74c | 628.5$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.29 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed No | 73c | 600$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +11.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +54%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4daebacked Yes | 40c | 600$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 60c | 595$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +13.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce0…dd4fbacked No | 75c | 470.73$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 420.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 65c | 400$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.19 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 6c | 383$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed Yes | 32c | 353.13$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…68fabacked Yes | 9c | 333$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x744c…e37fbacked No | 74c | 324.04$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.04 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d62…27e0backed No | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…99e7backed Yes | 33c | 294.1$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.05 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x941e…9775backed No | 72c | 259.62$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.34 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf965…2fcdbacked No | 74c | 235.44$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.34per pick | 56cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 14c | 232.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef97…b8fcbacked Yes | 30c | 224.94$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffcd…ab91backed No | 74c | 216$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed No | 54c | 195.5$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.65 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 63c | 166.29$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.13 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 74c | 163.94$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 36c | 140.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1db…d54fbacked No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6520…cf00backed No | 61c | 118.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked No | 48c | 104.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb232…8709backed No | 51c | 102.47$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c7…7070backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xebe3…c1eebacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7af2…8fb9backed Yes | 18c | 95.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee8b…6436backed No | 70c | 84.21$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 70cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb8…902abacked Yes | 40c | 75.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…55cebacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…649fbacked No | 61c | 59.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…05fdbacked Yes | 29c | 56.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…23c1backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…50dbbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25c…97a5backed Yes | 31c | 48.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 48.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0282…06fcbacked Yes | 51c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc0…69b3backed No | 49c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed No | 67c | 44.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 68c | 29.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da3…64d7backed No | 66c | 28.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +209.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3019…cacebacked No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ef…f934backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 70c | 24.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…39d7backed No | 65c | 23.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa4…cd4ebacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0abe…defebacked No | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff4…406bbacked No | 76c | 14.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will MegaETH launch a token by March 31, 2026?this page
- Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will MegaETH launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will MegaETH launch a token by September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.