Token Launches · resolved market
Will MegaETH launch a token by December 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb87dc64863dcd536659e991d48a251fb4103d2740defce9b3de061ada1558f17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $124,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $132,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ebb…5da4backed No | 1c | 13,796$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…cfd8backed No | 0c | 5,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 14c | 4,817$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.93 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…f429backed No | 5c | 1,882$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…d9d7backed No | 19c | 1,682$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.86 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a43…8c0abacked No | 20c | 1,493$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef0…25d8backed No | 1c | 1,347$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 1c | 1,200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 2c | 1,195$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02da…5b67backed No | 4c | 1,074$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…a926backed No | 11c | 1,002$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.09 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edf…eae8backed No | 11c | 1,002$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.08 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x015e…f0edbacked No | 14c | 1,000$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32bb…894abacked No | 5c | 999.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d3…13d7backed No | 2c | 687.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 2c | 628.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1199…7a6abacked No | 19c | 550.96$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…c63cbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a5…d93bbacked Yes | 78c | 500$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…c8e2backed No | 8c | 499.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 5c | 385.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 7c | 375.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked No | 9c | 375.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 10c | 306.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 80c | 305.18$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 241$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 76 | 6.6%5 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 15c | 68.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…d696backed Yes | 65c | 57.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 72 | 70.8%51 W · 21 L | +20.9wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +190%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 76c | 24.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed Yes | 78c | 21.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will MegaETH launch a token by December 31, 2026?this page
- Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will MegaETH launch a token by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will MegaETH launch a token by September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.