Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2ab38c920d31f40ef64503b3e320b8b2c1acdd472ef96ad3e72bc0a78de3d0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,980 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 2,217$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…ebc6backed Yes | 2c | 1,848$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,108$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 3c | 827.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 16c | 669.97$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.64 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 2c | 643.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 536.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 11c | 367$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be1…79f3backed No | 80c | 330$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.38 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 17c | 211.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…6c6dbacked Yes | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 17c | 199.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…63bcbacked Yes | 20c | 167.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +226.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed Yes | 9c | 164.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 8c | 149.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…a728backed Yes | 10c | 148.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 12c | 142.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 130$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 14c | 121$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 17c | 100.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3973…1477backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked Yes | 20c | 99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +249.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed Yes | 20c | 99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +247.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed Yes | 18c | 97.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked Yes | 20c | 96.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…32a3backed Yes | 14c | 80.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed Yes | 19c | 75.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +156.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…ca08backed Yes | 19c | 60.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +269.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 19c | 59.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf29…77d1backed Yes | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae66…66a4backed No | 76c | 20.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked No | 80c | 20.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 78c | 12.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.