TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$63,548

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,548 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9410…3c5abacked No1c5,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7260%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6e6…4cdbbacked No12c3,363$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.674030%12 W · 28 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+17.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes61c1,334$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.57146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5012…9a5cbacked No1c1,170$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.76934.8%24 W · 45 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-33.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No11c904.9$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7760121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes44c572.06$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.921,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x295b…0f1dbacked Yes19c537.65$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.652729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x883a…f76bbacked No59c508.41$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.964744.7%21 W · 26 L-6.1wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-22.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes31c504.53$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.5417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes78c449.64$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.86,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes20c421.84$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.382,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No15c414.68$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7334219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes53c384.22$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.621,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No59c330.57$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.031,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes32c295.19$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.5319426.3%51 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf112…d9e1backed Yes69c278.04$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.55728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-28.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes54c266.3$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.9411337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No31c262.62$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.181,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No54c245.64$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.843,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes55c242.36$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.066119.7%12 W · 49 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes18c241.03$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.942347.3%17 W · 217 L+0.1wins0.00per pick7cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e3e…522abacked No17c227.96$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2910237.3%38 W · 64 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x49d7…1635backed Yes47c218.52$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.85453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No27c218.03$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes78c216.51$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.542,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No32c214.31$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.084,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cde…476ebacked Yes20c211.99$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.5916336.2%59 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed Yes60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8035465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No60c199.99$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.9158349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No50c193.88$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.453,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes68c191.55$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.5530141.2%124 W · 177 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes52c191.38$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.384235.7%15 W · 27 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-33.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1b7d…41d2backed Yes71c185$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No45c181.74$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.91,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes56c178.98$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.9811646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No15c178.92$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.441,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e84…3b9cbacked No48c173$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.0420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No79c171.27$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.855,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes41c168.77$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.571,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.66$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaba5…9a02backed Yes60c165.46$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.462835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes61c164.53$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.4177428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0370…48d3backed No12c161.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207552%39 W · 36 L+8.3wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+14.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes51c159.5$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.481,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x65c7…9109backed Yes70c156.31$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.312259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd399…d13ebacked No76c150$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1141163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes37c145.8$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.377518.7%14 W · 61 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-43.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No48c143.75$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.591,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes64c143.73$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.251,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x595a…00a1backed Yes47c143$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked No15c139.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.42,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No67c136.03$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.638,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes67c135.99$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2817338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes75c134.95$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.931341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes50c130.38$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.1910562.9%66 W · 39 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No23c128.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.097,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x64a4…c103backed Yes48c123$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.1911038.2%42 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ee7…9c56backed Yes41c121.95$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.951747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes31c121$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.721,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd88…01bcbacked Yes61c120.4$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.15450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8ad…411abacked Yes47c119.99$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.55450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No55c119.43$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.299,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes44c116.97$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.9742438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x740e…93a9backed Yes76c116.21$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.943748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes52c115$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5550648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c110$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.252,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb31d…b920backed Yes55c109.45$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.4518035%63 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bba…a2eabacked No16c108.77$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3218255.5%101 W · 81 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes40c105.22$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.1347442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No62c103.48$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.51,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb334…01bbbacked No45c102.28$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes58c100.3$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.0932444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b5c…4568backed No67c100.01$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673748.6%18 W · 19 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa187…aa65backed No24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9502…ba22backed Yes53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4711146.8%52 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa31c…bdf7backed Yes53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4211145%50 W · 61 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe00f…abd9backed Yes61c91.73$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8312147.9%58 W · 63 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes64c90$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2837644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No40c87.18$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8723035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe768…10efbacked Yes58c86.74$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7411355.8%63 W · 50 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1014…b701backed Yes67c86.72$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.331442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes48c86$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4516234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No36c83.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x451a…176bbacked Yes52c83$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.84250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa24a…b45ebacked Yes41c82.93$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+67.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdef0…9c46backed Yes38c79.88$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.858038.8%31 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…fe58backed Yes36c75.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.974630.4%14 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes18c74.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.8564333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e55…9a76backed Yes56c74.75$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.961850%9 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1bc…71b3backed No20c69.53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.171942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes38c67.78$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.363,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes33c66$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.222,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbafc…d03fbacked Yes38c65.38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.381540%6 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+29%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8680…a628backed Yes77c65.09$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.092142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes18c65$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.434457%196 W · 148 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeeee…4e57backed No24c62.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.01633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x74b7…14e9backed Yes77c60$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.86645.5%30 W · 36 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes34c60$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.674338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes41c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.463538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.