Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18834c5270d05a017adedc2d1d54c7d6d020d2acc780539f71636ea4d9645428
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,263 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6e6…4cdbbacked Yes | 8c | 3,951$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.43 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3be1…79f3backed Yes | 19c | 1,632$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.09 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,483$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 22c | 879.14$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 27c | 745.74$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.46 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…f76bbacked No | 67c | 744.11$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.13 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 686.47$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 12c | 630.41$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 544.39$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 11c | 542.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.61 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee7…0ba8backed Yes | 20c | 488.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 454.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x295b…0f1dbacked Yes | 23c | 429.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 14c | 420.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 9c | 412.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 406.45$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.99 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 15c | 377.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 377.52$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.57 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes | 20c | 370.65$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.77 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 4c | 350$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked No | 73c | 350$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 12c | 349.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 79c | 348.26$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.05 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 72c | 335.31$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.14 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 18c | 305.23$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 12c | 299.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 30c | 295$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.9 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 12c | 279.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 278.91$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa428…40c6backed No | 77c | 267.65$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed No | 75c | 255.77$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed Yes | 30c | 242.4$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.84 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 15c | 240.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfe…de4dbacked Yes | 30c | 233.86$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 231.18$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.25 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…ebc6backed Yes | 11c | 225.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed Yes | 20c | 220.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 26c | 211.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 209.6$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 6c | 199.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…e3f0backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 30c | 199.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 199.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 17c | 195.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1395…b329backed Yes | 19c | 190.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…9109backed Yes | 13c | 184.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 177.82$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 13c | 166.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee7…9c56backed Yes | 31c | 161.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 72c | 158.75$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa31c…bdf7backed Yes | 19c | 150$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 149.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7909…bfa8backed No | 69c | 144$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 143.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 19c | 142.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 9c | 139.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 16c | 139$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 23c | 138.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 33c | 130$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87d9…5f20backed Yes | 8c | 126.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 10c | 125.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 31c | 125$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 17c | 123.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 73c | 123.3$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 28c | 121$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbafc…d03fbacked Yes | 30c | 116.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 18c | 113.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 19c | 111.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 13c | 108.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x875d…61e6backed Yes | 20c | 108$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 20c | 103$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cb…d64bbacked Yes | 38c | 102.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe535…7d1bbacked Yes | 20c | 102$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 20c | 100.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…d167backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…baa4backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed Yes | 27c | 99.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…e5abbacked No | 70c | 91.49$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed No | 78c | 88.46$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 86.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 29c | 83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…fe58backed Yes | 29c | 77.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed No | 79c | 76.72$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…b2ffbacked Yes | 25c | 76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e41…e758backed Yes | 27c | 74.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa1…347dbacked Yes | 26c | 70.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 70c | 69.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3382…a6e4backed Yes | 23c | 65.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5be5…8d0cbacked Yes | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 31c | 62.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f94…519ebacked Yes | 28c | 55.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 22c | 55.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 30c | 53.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 26c | 50.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf212…a810backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.