Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58623aabeb345e4e988c5da194fb0e02e1b1609709fd444556150e4d708cd927
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $142,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $142,273 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd64a…109bbacked Yes | 0c | 72,014$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6045…b2e7backed Yes | 2c | 4,076$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.87 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,329$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.18 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,305$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.9 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 8c | 1,277$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.38 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 7c | 1,091$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 1,063$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 3c | 999.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc4…de5abacked Yes | 7c | 872.78$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 862.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 19c | 790.98$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.61 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1411…6b02backed Yes | 10c | 735.16$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…186dbacked Yes | 5c | 681.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 591.6$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 6c | 543.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 5c | 454$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 8c | 444.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 23c | 432.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 13c | 400$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3be1…79f3backed Yes | 16c | 350$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 347.78$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 29c | 304.14$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 9c | 294.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 8c | 289.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 71c | 280.49$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 20c | 268.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 4c | 261.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 260.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…18f8backed No | 79c | 254.02$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa360…7440backed Yes | 11c | 248.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 14c | 243.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes | 28c | 240.26$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 6c | 234.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…9109backed Yes | 9c | 224.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 22c | 223$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 29c | 215.51$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 24c | 209.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa994…19a6backed Yes | 15c | 209.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 16c | 187.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 8c | 165.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 22c | 159.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 9c | 144.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 14c | 134.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 15c | 130.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…844fbacked Yes | 18c | 125.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 9c | 121$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 21c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 13c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…6149backed Yes | 12c | 119.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 19c | 119.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 15c | 113.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 11c | 112.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 80c | 112.88$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…baa4backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ad…411abacked Yes | 28c | 99.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7944…ee79backed Yes | 30c | 99.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 21c | 96.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 94.7$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 18c | 93.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed Yes | 11c | 91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 28c | 89.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 16c | 88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 85.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 24c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…fe58backed Yes | 15c | 77.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a4…acf1backed Yes | 28c | 74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb507…7f2abacked Yes | 30c | 73.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 80c | 72.25$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…6fecbacked Yes | 21c | 72.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 28c | 68.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 73c | 68.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 23c | 68.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 24c | 65.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8091…3178backed No | 74c | 65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…108dbacked Yes | 23c | 64.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 24c | 62.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…d2f6backed Yes | 18c | 61.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…963abacked Yes | 16c | 60.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed Yes | 29c | 50.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…48f4backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf884…0364backed Yes | 29c | 42.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…2101backed Yes | 25c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb822…1422backed No | 71c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 74c | 35.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa248…ad41backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 74c | 20.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x822e…d8ddbacked No | 74c | 15.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.