Earnings · resolved market
Will Dollar General (DG) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3f6990608a86c7dd8b2a6234af7c3f03354349f4d57b8e517e75727508b48a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,305 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad12…b115backed No | 1c | 1,836$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 17c | 1,050$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.18 | 348 | 36.8%128 W · 220 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 17c | 999.97$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.99 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 7c | 994.48$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.12 | 306 | 15%46 W · 260 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed Yes | 77c | 799.3$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.47 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 72c | 663.56$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.8 | 768 | 37.4%287 W · 481 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked No | 6c | 634$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 6c | 599.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 473 | 38.5%182 W · 291 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f2…6ec3backed No | 18c | 463.78$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 9c | 438.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 28c | 360.71$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 316 | 29.4%93 W · 223 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed No | 9c | 337.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…717ebacked No | 7c | 285.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 6c | 259.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked No | 10c | 252.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 6c | 211.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked No | 11c | 202.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 28c | 178$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x126d…f863backed No | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…aa5cbacked Yes | 75c | 150$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x912b…9156backed No | 26c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 8c | 145.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 12c | 142.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 8c | 137.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked No | 25c | 125$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66d1…b9ffbacked Yes | 75c | 101$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.46per pick | 63cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcea8…1f9fbacked Yes | 80c | 87.71$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 33c | 78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…4f62backed Yes | 79c | 63.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…a3adbacked No | 27c | 58.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 60c | 52.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 269 | 51.3%138 W · 131 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…44e3backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 23c | 47.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 73c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 332 | 25%83 W · 249 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafd7…f634backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…4323backed Yes | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…ea0cbacked Yes | 71c | 19.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.