Movies · resolved market
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4de8fb3d15bc5826b2e956bd976aa1b01d57f29dfa86f5ba20c034768c7af601
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04db…f0fdbacked No | 1c | 1,845$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77e5…ec41backed No | 30c | 1,356$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.98 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 3c | 1,337$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 2c | 1,217$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…9462backed No | 1c | 856.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…7e47backed Yes | 70c | 800$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x643f…e306backed No | 5c | 718.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -37%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5761…0c28backed No | 5c | 599.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…3ecebacked No | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed No | 3c | 442.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked No | 3c | 404.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 359.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42f…be79backed No | 12c | 308.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…f566backed Yes | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +10.8wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb1…5c16backed Yes | 67c | 289.09$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.13 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +8.4wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x45ef…143bbacked Yes | 77c | 269.14$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.14 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 4c | 262.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked No | 4c | 235.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 15c | 217.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 212.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 34c | 70.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf451…86f9backed No | 53c | 53.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.