Stocks · resolved market
Will Google dip to $270 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8b228b3872386745b8754129868e8612f27cac175f1984162b54631e5c56891
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c08…3ad5backed Yes | 31c | 2,379$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.48 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 72c | 1,846$1,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.98 | 1,136 | 43.8%497 W · 639 L | +25.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 24c | 1,104$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.02 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd86c…d09abacked Yes | 16c | 723.11$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.22 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 25c | 561.78$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.82 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 72c | 524.68$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.26 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 8c | 441.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed No | 66c | 392.29$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.61 | 232 | 53.4%124 W · 108 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 369.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 1,445 | 8.8%127 W · 1,318 L | -53.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 18c | 346.22$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdf…7a27backed No | 66c | 344.62$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 30c | 252.48$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.16 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3a…9ec0backed No | 62c | 187.36$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.09 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +159%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed No | 31c | 149.59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.92 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 14c | 141.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 60c | 110.46$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -26.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0a…a3b9backed No | 27c | 92.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8868…0722backed No | 61c | 89.66$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 63c | 79.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 35c | 77.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 33c | 74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39ac…90fbbacked No | 66c | 68.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 19c | 62.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b3…a5adbacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed No | 36c | 50.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c9…d567backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7a…2f10backed No | 27c | 44.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 47c | 41.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 28c | 40.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 85 | 24.7%21 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 38.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 33c | 36.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe850…478ebacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 79c | 13.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 75cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google dip to $270 in November?this page
- Will Google dip to $175 in November?No won
- Will Google dip to $290 in Nov 25-28?No won
- Will Google dip to $300 in Nov 25-28?No won
- Will Google reach $290 in November?Yes won
- Will Google reach $300 in November?Yes won
- Will Google reach $315 in November?Yes won
- Will Google reach $330 in Nov 25-28?No won
- Will Google reach $335 in November?No won
- Will Google reach $355 in November?No won
- Will Google reach $380 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.