Stocks · resolved market
Will Google dip to $300 in Nov 25-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41a7a11134b3c384af68a97185ff68dfdd93b9e129414d9d8dd70ce39b58ba5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed Yes | 15c | 5,472$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.08 | 232 | 53.4%124 W · 108 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…3834backed Yes | 28c | 4,950$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb1…c6f2backed Yes | 24c | 3,200$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed Yes | 16c | 3,007$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…8486backed Yes | 21c | 2,537$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…6ec2backed Yes | 22c | 835.47$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef6…5afdbacked Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed No | 5c | 500$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +5.1wins | +0.39per pick | 53cpaid | +196.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2a15…32f3backed Yes | 11c | 500$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 393.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…2c4ebacked Yes | 7c | 366.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 240$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 10c | 219.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699e…f9b8backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02e4…f71cbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdd…46fbbacked Yes | 25c | 61.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google dip to $300 in Nov 25-28?this page
- Will Google dip to $175 in November?No won
- Will Google dip to $270 in November?No won
- Will Google dip to $290 in Nov 25-28?No won
- Will Google reach $290 in November?Yes won
- Will Google reach $300 in November?Yes won
- Will Google reach $315 in November?Yes won
- Will Google reach $330 in Nov 25-28?No won
- Will Google reach $335 in November?No won
- Will Google reach $355 in November?No won
- Will Google reach $380 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.