Stocks · resolved market
Will Google reach $315 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f2f0013fde66bd3126b29410afc9e260d7fd8e65a49482c0ab53e6cfb4de973
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 6,404$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 1,443 | 8.8%127 W · 1,316 L | -53.1wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 49c | 2,060$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,047.41 | 1,106 | 43.9%486 W · 620 L | +27.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 60c | 1,900$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 34c | 1,531$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.23 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 36c | 1,439$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.22 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed Yes | 7c | 1,032$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.26 | 232 | 53.4%124 W · 108 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3a…9ec0backed Yes | 11c | 958.52$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.19 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +159%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9bde…33d3backed Yes | 52c | 949.71$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e66…86a3backed Yes | 15c | 469.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a0…1d3bbacked Yes | 29c | 308.92$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…fe13backed Yes | 15c | 249$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +235.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 79c | 200.4$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.02 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 75cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No | 12c | 185.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdf…7a27backed No | 63c | 182.85$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 55c | 163.57$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.97 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 19c | 131.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.98 | 98 | 35.7%35 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5283…64e1backed Yes | 72c | 127.85$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 36c | 125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad6c…0a2bbacked Yes | 23c | 105.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +110.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 41cpaid | +161.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c5…016abacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 44c | 96.48$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x617d…83e3backed Yes | 11c | 90$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +240.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 37c | 87.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.17 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 25c | 73.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked No | 80c | 72$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 40c | 50.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…36fdbacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google reach $315 in November?this page
- Will Google dip to $175 in November?No won
- Will Google dip to $270 in November?No won
- Will Google dip to $290 in Nov 25-28?No won
- Will Google dip to $300 in Nov 25-28?No won
- Will Google reach $290 in November?Yes won
- Will Google reach $300 in November?Yes won
- Will Google reach $330 in Nov 25-28?No won
- Will Google reach $335 in November?No won
- Will Google reach $355 in November?No won
- Will Google reach $380 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.