Earnings · resolved market
Will 3M (MMM) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3e2caf899d38010e4797d6c9f7c1b3b46ee01e5ccfed0322ab20678b3362fb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe331…0534backed No | 1c | 5,973$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 4,328$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4430…215ebacked No | 0c | 3,100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb65…3115backed No | 11c | 2,245$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.76 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 12c | 1,600$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…d607backed No | 13c | 1,589$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 43c | 1,158$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed No | 10c | 999.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked No | 8c | 887.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 11cpaid | +215.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa95b…6927backed No | 12c | 857.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed No | 10c | 604.9$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf8…0bf5backed No | 9c | 500$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…70a6backed No | 13c | 469.31$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.01 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +170%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 9c | 456.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb4…72c8backed No | 9c | 449.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 10c | 423.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…0c73backed No | 10c | 401.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 9c | 363.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x281f…f53cbacked No | 12c | 350$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…7690backed No | 9c | 336.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…4073backed No | 12c | 300.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf09…3b16backed No | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d21…df94backed No | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 11c | 296.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.53 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf928…7272backed No | 9c | 280$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…e862backed No | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1d…a1e3backed No | 17c | 240.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8324…57fdbacked No | 11c | 237.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 12c | 228.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb097…1814backed No | 12c | 220$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 12c | 214.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…dc80backed No | 14c | 212.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 6c | 210.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6aa…5a37backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed5…83efbacked No | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe86…8f43backed No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 18c | 197.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 10c | 172.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef85…f2b9backed No | 11c | 172.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f43…9447backed No | 12c | 163.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 10c | 150.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a17…a87cbacked No | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 11c | 146.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…2969backed No | 9c | 117.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3997…dd0fbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x190b…e60ebacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…613fbacked No | 11c | 99.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f4b…f8d4backed No | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8b…6433backed No | 18c | 67.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…cb8ebacked No | 21c | 58.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1919…153cbacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 54c | 29.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafd7…f634backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.