Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1c9f661a92355e905237fd29aa42ac6033248b878e3996a7030779b8e6acb36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74db…4ca5backed Yes | 3c | 14,390$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.76 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,985$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,905$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 7c | 1,505$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.19 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,279$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,032$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 11c | 958.31$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.04 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 876.86$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 736.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 3c | 736.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4f…3529backed Yes | 2c | 628.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked No | 69c | 621.28$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.6 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…cf45backed Yes | 3c | 610$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 504.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf502…2975backed Yes | 31c | 499.99$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fdc3backed Yes | 3c | 499.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 21c | 420.55$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.31 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 416.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 408.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 405.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 6c | 400$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 3c | 335.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 5c | 313.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd690…40e5backed Yes | 5c | 301.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…4ad8backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 14c | 276$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 5c | 195$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 13c | 155.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd2…1f27backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed Yes | 19c | 149.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked Yes | 10c | 99.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a2…1492backed Yes | 14c | 93.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.