Earnings · resolved market
Will Playboy (PLBY) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9b6d1231ce6a119f239951ce51d1b2ace9176e5c0f46b81b08b21e4bb0002cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,708 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 9c | 4,038$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.53 | 353 | 36.5%129 W · 224 L | +21.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 5c | 1,726$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.71 | 310 | 14.8%46 W · 264 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 1,240$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 3cpaid | +410.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf3…68aebacked No | 7c | 1,140$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed No | 9c | 972.47$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.45 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 5c | 852.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90b0…cf23backed No | 7c | 759.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 5c | 731.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 8c | 468.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 333 | 24.9%83 W · 250 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce1…b2a8backed No | 3c | 446.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765c…dbb6backed No | 16c | 441.77$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.84 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed No | 8c | 402.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…7febbacked No | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 9c | 309.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x701e…9013backed No | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 8c | 284.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x714e…68a0backed No | 5c | 241.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e3…934abacked No | 6c | 239.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…9f9abacked No | 8c | 221.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 6c | 163.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…00a3backed No | 7c | 160.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1e…8213backed No | 15c | 159.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x049c…a244backed No | 10c | 151.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ac…bd9fbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed No | 11c | 99.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 17c | 92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 464 | 14.2%66 W · 398 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.