NFL · resolved market
Josh Allen x Hailee Steinfeld baby: Boy or Girl?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc9b9c7b95bbfd941ebb0b04c37be4582983fb99e7401c960381b6784c1e181f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Girlof Boy, Girl
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5b3…4155backed Boy | 51c | 1,200$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Boy | 50c | 1,092$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Boy | 16c | 829.92$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.14 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0676…3b27backed Boy | 51c | 495$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae2b…90eabacked Boy | 52c | 479.52$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Girl | 48c | 422.49$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.39 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked Girl | 49c | 402.28$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Boy | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Boy | 51c | 350$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.5 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Girl | 50c | 312.26$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed Girl | 50c | 306.13$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.07 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Boy | 50c | 260$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Boy | 19c | 251.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed Boy | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked Girl | 61c | 176$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0207…711dbacked Girl | 49c | 172.44$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Boy | 41c | 160$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Boy | 52c | 157.49$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.89 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Boy | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Boy | 53c | 128.51$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.11 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked Girl | 50c | 125$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Boy | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd96e…1ea6backed Boy | 39c | 93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c8…0c6dbacked Boy | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Girl | 49c | 78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Boy | 50c | 76.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Girl | 50c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d9…682cbacked Boy | 50c | 63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…c706backed Boy | 47c | 61.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…24d2backed Boy | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…3605backed Boy | 19c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb079…a1ccbacked Boy | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +120%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…8fb6backed Boy | 49c | 51.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…f483backed Boy | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be7…8e91backed Girl | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6140…08b0backed Boy | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Boy | 50c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe02b…e86dbacked Boy | 39c | 43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc68d…ec12backed Girl | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed Boy | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…a1c6backed Girl | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f64…fd82backed Girl | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…e639backed Girl | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…f17abacked Boy | 45c | 39.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78fd…9429backed Boy | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d22…d039backed Boy | 57c | 38.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cde…31f8backed Boy | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b71…b78dbacked Girl | 47c | 38.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Girl | 49c | 31.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ce…65abbacked Boy | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Girl | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf924…435bbacked Boy | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Boy | 55c | 29.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb112…20d3backed Girl | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +33%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d94…3286backed Girl | 49c | 23.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0530…5e69backed Boy | 49c | 23.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe332…e295backed Boy | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2408…bc8abacked Girl | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32e1…f209backed Girl | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd282…a206backed Boy | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fb…353fbacked Girl | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf4…348dbacked Boy | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Girl | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 177 | 41.8%74 W · 103 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed Girl | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6744…fa0ebacked Boy | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…2c5ebacked Boy | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.