Earnings · resolved market
Will BlackRock (BLK) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a8bebb6884dae47328aa0ecf946dcf3a02e9302716566299087542f7f054be9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 24c | 4,723$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,582.63 | 65 | 100%65 W · 0 L | +26.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 82+0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x4670…5f1cbacked No | 26c | 2,731$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3e…713abacked Yes | 73c | 2,043$1,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.99 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcee…0f35backed No | 32c | 1,500$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…dc80backed No | 23c | 1,126$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked No | 21c | 599.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a1…c918backed Yes | 79c | 498.39$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked No | 56c | 441.47$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.07 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 80c | 408.66$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.55 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 56c | 304.07$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.65 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8310…d990backed No | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 11c | 299.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 298.55$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.12 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77dd…fc49backed No | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.31per pick | 14cpaid | +265%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 59c | 274.24$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.94 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 76c | 263.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…7690backed Yes | 80c | 262.08$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.24 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed Yes | 77c | 232.96$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed Yes | 64c | 219.65$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.49 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a11…09b6backed Yes | 66c | 199.98$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbc…76f6backed No | 36c | 181.75$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0f…f3e6backed No | 32c | 153.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 78c | 137.95$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x961b…4210backed No | 36c | 137.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…0b6dbacked Yes | 66c | 132.79$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…bf68backed Yes | 76c | 131.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -8.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 16c | 130.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 25c | 122.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…21cdbacked No | 26c | 120.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +134.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9296backed No | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…f58fbacked Yes | 77c | 110$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeec…a303backed No | 14c | 108.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 27c | 106.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e5…2244backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380e…c352backed No | 31c | 61.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe79a…d65cbacked No | 34c | 59.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…aad8backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 72c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a1…9836backed Yes | 65c | 49.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dbf…3faebacked No | 25c | 49.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +267.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked No | 41c | 46.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…8f65backed Yes | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…693cbacked Yes | 56c | 36.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed Yes | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa52e…8f85backed Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…7d41backed Yes | 74c | 29.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…4133backed No | 39c | 27.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +462.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…e94ebacked No | 50c | 21.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 67c | 21.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bf…d1f4backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415f…88debacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…618abacked Yes | 78c | 19.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c82…c6bcbacked Yes | 73c | 14.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.