World Politics · resolved market
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0437f06a0b6a6d461042738182a8120ca0fa1edf534447df4cc7bac9833f838f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 7c | 5,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0414…be21backed No | 7c | 4,800$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.71 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 3,126$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 4c | 2,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae5…e32ebacked No | 1c | 1,956$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42f9…052ebacked No | 1c | 1,900$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 1,776$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 8c | 1,501$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.82 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…30fabacked No | 7c | 1,355$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.08 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73b0…397fbacked No | 2c | 1,297$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…679ebacked No | 1c | 1,204$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 7c | 1,107$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.87 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed No | 4c | 1,068$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 4c | 1,065$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 132 | 25%33 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 3c | 1,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 135 | 7.4%10 W · 125 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 991.48$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 7c | 949.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b5…9523backed No | 1c | 841.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 4c | 749$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 6c | 709$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 4c | 626.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 4c | 558.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 5c | 532.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 2c | 527.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 505.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed No | 7c | 500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 3c | 458.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 8c | 448.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 4c | 439$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 7c | 411.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 6c | 400$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 7c | 342.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd245…2318backed No | 6c | 311.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd12a…fb09backed No | 6c | 309.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 7c | 308.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 10c | 304.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked No | 8c | 291.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 8c | 289.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed No | 8c | 270.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78b6…2309backed No | 6c | 261.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed No | 9c | 261.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…4957backed No | 5c | 256.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 7c | 246.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 14c | 208.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52fc…c095backed No | 6c | 202.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…63bcbacked No | 8c | 172.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…ca08backed No | 8c | 172.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e0…6593backed No | 10c | 166.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…51c8backed No | 7c | 162.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb557…ef84backed No | 18c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 11c | 143.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…ac09backed Yes | 64c | 135$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…f16bbacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…1f14backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…b529backed Yes | 79c | 95.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 77c | 71.65$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked No | 26c | 68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x89b8…2aebbacked Yes | 73c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed Yes | 64c | 19.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…2e0dbacked Yes | 77c | 13.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?this page
- Will GERB-SDS (GERB–SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
- Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.