World Politics · resolved market
Will GERB-SDS (GERB–SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e60f017a026ba7543ca005e275185413eda672cbe1f0c6de40186f679ec0121
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0414…be21backed Yes | 6c | 5,146$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.47 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c49…bb2dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,494$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69cc…c273backed Yes | 3c | 2,004$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbade…69e6backed Yes | 1c | 1,516$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff6…9f32backed Yes | 6c | 892.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 6c | 877.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c06…a52fbacked Yes | 5c | 698.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…ae48backed Yes | 3c | 391.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…6b75backed Yes | 6c | 389$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2052…b249backed Yes | 7c | 375.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…30fabacked Yes | 6c | 345.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 4c | 328.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78b6…2309backed Yes | 5c | 323.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd245…2318backed Yes | 4c | 288.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Yes | 7c | 221.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 6c | 217.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 135 | 7.4%10 W · 125 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…4957backed Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4033…f29abacked Yes | 8c | 190.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc651…dbf7backed Yes | 14c | 190$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 8c | 184$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf88…bc20backed Yes | 6c | 183.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x915f…7ed3backed Yes | 12c | 125.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945e…06e8backed Yes | 10c | 124.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes | 17c | 82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will GERB-SDS (GERB–SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?this page
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?Yes won
- Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.