Movies · resolved market
Will "Crime 101" Second Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x880ff8a8c967d0a1dde0680162ac0dc110cfc9a3b8ecdacb57f2f91996b32ce1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed No | 6c | 1,592$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 4c | 882.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 4c | 872$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 576.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 8c | 533.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 7c | 500$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 11c | 500$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b332backed No | 4c | 400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0b…b8b2backed No | 8c | 399.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 10c | 380.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 10c | 347.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2944…031abacked No | 12c | 325$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked No | 21c | 299.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 78c | 201$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed No | 22c | 131$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…9a4cbacked Yes | 65c | 121$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 51c | 110$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfac3…5728backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 79c | 96.19$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…b5febacked Yes | 45c | 64.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 32c | 57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 60c | 35.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Yes | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c9…eedebacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Crime 101" Second Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?this page
- Will "Crime 101" Second Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?No won
- Will "Crime 101" Second Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?No won
- Will "Crime 101" Second Weekend Box Office be greater than 10m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.