TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Runa Team - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Runa Teamof Xtreme Gaming, Runa Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$63,842
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$77,137

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,842 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xec98…afcdbacked Runa Team76c6,845$5,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,612.061,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed Xtreme Gaming11c5,080$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.914751.7%76 W · 71 L+11.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfdf1…c324backed Xtreme Gaming20c5,023$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.33633.3%12 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x02b1…c764backed Xtreme Gaming47c4,403$2,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,088.121241.7%5 W · 7 L-3.1wins-0.26per pick67cpaid-42.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Runa Team49c3,946$1,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,009.9189749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Xtreme Gaming17c3,241$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.932,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Runa Team49c3,006$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,536.0162841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Xtreme Gaming26c2,859$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.5714947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Xtreme Gaming44c2,186$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.3534146.6%159 W · 182 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb569…5695backed Runa Team33c2,150$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,440.519047.9%91 W · 99 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Xtreme Gaming35c2,015$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.7473841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Runa Team38c1,868$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,150.5336442.3%154 W · 210 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61e4…3030backed Xtreme Gaming23c1,300$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8979…9428backed Xtreme Gaming32c713.06$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2308661.6%53 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Xtreme Gaming69c611.16$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.6423465%152 W · 82 L-1.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Xtreme Gaming10c600$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6013027.7%36 W · 94 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-35.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7acb…8c1dbacked Runa Team35c500$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3259661.5%59 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-3.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb787…ad0abacked Xtreme Gaming11c462.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014446.5%67 W · 77 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56fc…affbbacked Runa Team33c400$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26825547.8%122 W · 133 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Xtreme Gaming69c337.79$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.7516665.7%109 W · 57 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f04…5fc4backed Xtreme Gaming50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15031545.4%143 W · 172 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xefb9…e74fbacked Runa Team78c250$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552948.3%14 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe99e…0084backed Xtreme Gaming39c205.71$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.7187645.7%400 W · 476 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd202…964dbacked Xtreme Gaming9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18626.5%4 W · 58 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Runa Team32c200$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13646535.1%163 W · 302 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x76d4…3ad4backed Xtreme Gaming39c200$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778149.4%40 W · 41 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe35e…7754backed Xtreme Gaming68c195.72$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.094957.1%28 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18dd…6bf2backed Xtreme Gaming17c175.38$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297247.2%34 W · 38 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcad…0a68backed Xtreme Gaming26c103.6$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.273145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Runa Team80c102.5$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.556848.8%277 W · 291 L-1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked Runa Team32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick23cpaid+99.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked Runa Team30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7013238.6%51 W · 81 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb82b…3a09backed Xtreme Gaming69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6914948.3%72 W · 77 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bd4…ea9abacked Xtreme Gaming50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506145.9%28 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aaf…c132backed Xtreme Gaming54c89.33$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.246053.3%32 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Xtreme Gaming69c72.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505062%31 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb358…122cbacked Runa Team50c70.6$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.65635.7%20 W · 36 L-10.2wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-39.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xb261…f3a0backed Runa Team34c70$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.27554.7%41 W · 34 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x073a…6f98backed Xtreme Gaming46c64.4$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4220361.6%125 W · 78 L+22.0wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8d54…8d9abacked Xtreme Gaming69c61.41$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.376462.5%40 W · 24 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+26%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9de0…d8b7backed Xtreme Gaming54c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.34367.4%29 W · 14 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb382…c498backed Runa Team59c50.85$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.857159.2%42 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Xtreme Gaming56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2826958.7%158 W · 111 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8046…a845backed Xtreme Gaming33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.15950.8%30 W · 29 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Runa Team59c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.923650.4%119 W · 117 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b41…2c02backed Xtreme Gaming58c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.472637.5%272 W · 454 L+3.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.