Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Runa Team - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa33a09697f55535a06b8f5115475076b2042649a239cd30c810b3352f3dc9aa1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Runa Teamof Xtreme Gaming, Runa Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Runa Team | 76c | 6,845$5,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,612.06 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed Xtreme Gaming | 11c | 5,080$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.9 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +11.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf1…c324backed Xtreme Gaming | 20c | 5,023$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.3 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02b1…c764backed Xtreme Gaming | 47c | 4,403$2,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,088.12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 67cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Runa Team | 49c | 3,946$1,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,009.91 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Xtreme Gaming | 17c | 3,241$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.93 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Runa Team | 49c | 3,006$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,536.01 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Xtreme Gaming | 26c | 2,859$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.57 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Xtreme Gaming | 44c | 2,186$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.35 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed Runa Team | 33c | 2,150$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440.5 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Xtreme Gaming | 35c | 2,015$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.74 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Runa Team | 38c | 1,868$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150.53 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…3030backed Xtreme Gaming | 23c | 1,300$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8979…9428backed Xtreme Gaming | 32c | 713.06$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Xtreme Gaming | 69c | 611.16$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.64 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Xtreme Gaming | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7acb…8c1dbacked Runa Team | 35c | 500$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb787…ad0abacked Xtreme Gaming | 11c | 462.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked Runa Team | 33c | 400$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Xtreme Gaming | 69c | 337.79$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.75 | 166 | 65.7%109 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Xtreme Gaming | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked Runa Team | 78c | 250$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Xtreme Gaming | 39c | 205.71$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.71 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…964dbacked Xtreme Gaming | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Runa Team | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…3ad4backed Xtreme Gaming | 39c | 200$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35e…7754backed Xtreme Gaming | 68c | 195.72$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.09 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18dd…6bf2backed Xtreme Gaming | 17c | 175.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed Xtreme Gaming | 26c | 103.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Runa Team | 80c | 102.5$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Runa Team | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 23cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Runa Team | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Xtreme Gaming | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd4…ea9abacked Xtreme Gaming | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…c132backed Xtreme Gaming | 54c | 89.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Xtreme Gaming | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…122cbacked Runa Team | 50c | 70.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -10.2wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…f3a0backed Runa Team | 34c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Xtreme Gaming | 46c | 64.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d54…8d9abacked Xtreme Gaming | 69c | 61.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…d8b7backed Xtreme Gaming | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb382…c498backed Runa Team | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Xtreme Gaming | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 269 | 58.7%158 W · 111 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Xtreme Gaming | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Runa Team | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 236 | 50.4%119 W · 117 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Xtreme Gaming | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Runa Team - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Runa Team (BO3)Xtreme Gaming won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Runa Team - Game 1 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.