Movies · resolved market
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cc7bef15205fd3436b97ab9ef1f3ebd05f6b84a6010ae7ac70dc627327601c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x643f…e306backed No | 5c | 12,134$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.73 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -37%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5761…0c28backed No | 6c | 6,000$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 5,141$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c95…e20abacked No | 1c | 3,100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 4c | 1,744$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.54 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 1,497$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed No | 18c | 1,356$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.88 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed No | 3c | 765.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked No | 3c | 761.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 7c | 648.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 4c | 619.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 5c | 598.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked No | 3c | 586.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 4c | 496.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…6e19backed No | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 359.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 5c | 342$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…f566backed Yes | 66c | 300$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.78 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +10.8wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 294.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45ef…143bbacked Yes | 78c | 268.27$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.27 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77e5…ec41backed Yes | 80c | 222$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209b…834abacked No | 11c | 199.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 5c | 199.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…00a3backed No | 6c | 180$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…7e47backed Yes | 78c | 172.77$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19db…7636backed No | 9c | 146.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe455…fdb3backed Yes | 73c | 86$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…facdbacked Yes | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf451…86f9backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb1…5c16backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +8.4wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "Reality Check: Inside America's Next Top Model" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "The Night Agent: Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.