Earnings · resolved market
Will Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3032e04d2e76e314afb161b520b67abe86414b9145be98371b445f68f3dfbf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 5c | 5,936$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,619.28 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 15c | 2,730$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,315.93 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…177fbacked No | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 5c | 2,206$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,105.23 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 6c | 2,142$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,007.02 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 4c | 2,000$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.99 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 5c | 2,000$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,905.66 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 5c | 1,908$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,818.69 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 6c | 1,904$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.95 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa0…3895backed No | 10c | 1,702$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,523.29 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked No | 6c | 1,614$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,513.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +706.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45f8…80debacked No | 8c | 1,263$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,163.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,174%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Yes | 6c | 1,209$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.96 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 11c | 1,118$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.37 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…7febbacked No | 5c | 1,100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,047.2 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd032…8183backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 5c | 999.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.49 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 48c | 999.88$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.88 | 65 | 100%65 W · 0 L | +26.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 82+0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 6c | 991.93$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.6 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 6c | 969.94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.42 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 7c | 961.24$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.26 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9913…3873backed No | 5c | 951.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +534%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 6c | 906.12$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.41 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed No | 5c | 695.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 4cpaid | +553.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf97…4653backed No | 4c | 627.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.64 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4afd…1241backed No | 9c | 600$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 5c | 596.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.04 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +165.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 6c | 528.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.76 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…208cbacked No | 5c | 528.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.13 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +161.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf86…7622backed No | 10c | 500$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…6dffbacked No | 9c | 500$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.93 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6b…0ad4backed No | 7c | 472.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.09 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…b420backed No | 4c | 455.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,176.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…67b6backed No | 5c | 443.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.13 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 8c | 407.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.92 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed No | 6c | 393$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.82 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb65…3115backed No | 8c | 391.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.07 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked No | 5c | 382.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.29 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x672a…04e8backed No | 8c | 375$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4497…8c81backed No | 5c | 360$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.2 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5251…3da9backed No | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 14cpaid | +313.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed Yes | 6c | 322$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +219.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 5c | 320.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.2 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc531…62a5backed No | 6c | 313.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 300$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.9 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked No | 6c | 299.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.12 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf702…0bbabacked No | 8c | 293.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.59 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…d8d5backed No | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +180%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41c9…0b9cbacked No | 8c | 283.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +516.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed No | 6c | 263.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.68 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x825d…1633backed No | 6c | 263.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.25 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +120.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7f…65a2backed No | 6c | 255.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.19 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 9cpaid | +178%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x464a…4aa5backed No | 6c | 255.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.17 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +167.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 13c | 226.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +215.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 19c | 216.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…f80dbacked No | 5c | 210.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,789.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ac…bd9fbacked No | 10c | 210$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.6 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 6c | 201$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 6c | 200.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 12c | 180.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.24 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 79c | 165$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.75 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032b…603dbacked No | 7c | 134$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +820%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe9…17acbacked No | 10c | 101.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +122.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +83%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 21c | 88.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.85 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe056…8120backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.