TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Earnings · resolved market

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$381,687
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$298,804

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $381,687 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Earnings
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1963…dd0cbacked No8c51,382$3,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,857.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked No5c49,444$2,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,299.385719.3%11 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x087e…51c5backed No8c10,004$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.353228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c7,045$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.346314.3%66 W · 397 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1790…a32dbacked No8c5,822$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe381…3ba9backed No3c5,169$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.5525125.5%64 W · 187 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55d8…74f1backed No8c4,636$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No6c4,607$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.961921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40f7…1f5ebacked No8c4,500$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked No3c4,250$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14117137.4%64 W · 107 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+31.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No7c4,118$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.562512%3 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick7cpaid+113.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5dc6…c79bbacked No10c4,008$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No7c4,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.9917226.7%46 W · 126 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ca…66edbacked No5c3,750$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.1450%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked No6c3,737$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.5440%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa42b…92e0backed No5c3,479$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fd6…92efbacked No7c3,306$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fe7…dbd6backed No5c3,230$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.730215.2%46 W · 256 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd98e…3c54backed No11c3,194$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.081233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1b7…3029backed No5c3,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc152…7b79backed No4c2,675$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7138…db74backed No6c2,596$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fd5…22f6backed No8c2,594$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfce…80c7backed No7c2,400$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16134237.1%127 W · 215 L+21.4wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0cc7…7349backed No6c2,349$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94b2…9e5abacked No4c2,222$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No5c2,213$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.4233025.2%83 W · 247 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25f5…f692backed No6c2,099$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e58…23edbacked No10c2,041$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d89…b502backed No10c1,990$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08a9…fa0fbacked No7c1,780$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c0…d72dbacked No9c1,606$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5415…2159backed No8c1,591$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x949e…22fabacked No14c1,517$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90e7…814cbacked No7c1,493$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2381…2b8fbacked No4c1,435$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x795d…bdf8backed No7c1,431$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a55…ac3dbacked No7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd69…0986backed No7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a68…a4c8backed No7c1,384$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00ae…ae32backed No6c1,319$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.6510721.5%23 W · 84 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid0%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd99…4fffbacked No9c1,307$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefcc…4883backed No8c1,304$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc914…33ecbacked No8c1,261$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed89…e266backed No5c1,249$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d0…c798backed No9c1,213$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf64b…e382backed No9c1,200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d76…70a3backed No9c1,164$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdec9…b18dbacked No9c1,143$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16bd…e288backed No2c1,112$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+92.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd51…c69cbacked No8c1,108$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91be…a81bbacked No9c1,107$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e8f…8459backed No9c1,079$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0bc…b733backed No6c1,048$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8081…95cabacked No7c1,036$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.15714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bf…de12backed No10c1,022$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f21…3d6ebacked No10c1,017$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd73b…bf60backed No7c1,000$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+109.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x194e…c1babacked No11c999.98$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x779c…d3d3backed No5c999.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7411…47cebacked No9c986.65$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x292a…e42fbacked No9c977.56$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48f9…e61dbacked No6c960.1$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4574…0b7abacked No6c923.15$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eae…a598backed No1c912$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6a7…5049backed No6c891.79$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa294…52eabacked No6c883.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No7c881.16$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.276927.5%19 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9034…1925backed No5c862.88$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa793…7de7backed No5c858.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafd6…a992backed No6c851.69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d53…d687backed No8c825$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.75425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-67.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fc1…5e82backed No11c804.98$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90db…b971backed No9c792.91$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5dc…d1dfbacked No8c779.93$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked No7c770.6$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd903…27e7backed No7c769.02$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf85…63c6backed No12c750.11$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No6c749.95$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.53815.8%6 W · 32 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-22.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b78…32bdbacked No5c748.96$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x337a…6706backed No7c747.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked No8c708.86$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.022913.8%4 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed5b…8e60backed No7c684.22$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4fd…b717backed No6c680.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f6…2232backed No11c642.04$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ce6…16a3backed No8c635.4$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.061618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb38…4da5backed No6c602.58$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9c1…36c8backed No7c596.87$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5218…ab80backed No10c595.96$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2611…fa38backed No10c580.8$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0f1…cc6abacked No5c574$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc162…67e5backed No7c571.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9378…a1ddbacked No9c568.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47a0…60d2backed No9c531.22$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc560…37a2backed No9c528$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d04…0eccbacked No10c526.08$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45c5…c7e1backed No7c524.25$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c0b…bfc2backed No15c523.68$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8d…b8f8backed No6c515$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdce0…5ba0backed No10c510$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514613%6 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.