Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe2222c3e698a48d69713948ead153e2acd9ca56705d3e36f39db7d78f22d5f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 0c | 7,500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb85a…4972backed No | 5c | 4,033$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5e…37b3backed No | 23c | 1,945$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.78 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 13c | 1,040$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.92 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…d6b7backed Yes | 70c | 610$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…0a7bbacked No | 30c | 610$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 3c | 601.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 15c | 511.25$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.69 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 19c | 427.96$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.93 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked No | 5c | 426.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked No | 13c | 390.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 388.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 6c | 316$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 20c | 312.49$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 10c | 266.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae5…45e3backed Yes | 80c | 263.06$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…312bbacked No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 20c | 189.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 79c | 170$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 75c | 154.04$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…3605backed No | 20c | 151.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 16c | 148.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 8c | 137.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 12c | 129.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 64c | 117.32$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 14c | 105.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 11c | 104.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 21c | 100.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 17c | 95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 74c | 82.27$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 18c | 77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked No | 18c | 77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked No | 18c | 77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed No | 18c | 77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 21c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x497d…944cbacked No | 22c | 49.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 64c | 30.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…ecf3backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…d189backed Yes | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 63c | 17.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4513…5a38backed Yes | 68c | 15.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?this page
- Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?No won
- Will Jared Randall be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?No won
- Will Joel Willett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?No won
- Will Logan Forsythe be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?No won
- Will Pamela Stevenson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.