Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe0fe39d95df3b654e9bf995024d2129ef5dafa50a4c492456ff9d50ae5d462d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 2c | 4,213$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.58 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 2c | 2,975$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 6c | 2,726$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.58 | 115 | 22.6%26 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,415$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 16c | 1,025$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.74 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 16c | 950$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.23 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 15c | 852.4$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.25 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 6c | 796.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 360.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 14c | 358$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb85a…4972backed Yes | 5c | 320$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 5c | 318.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 317.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 9c | 283$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf107…b9babacked Yes | 11c | 212.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 193.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 104 | 2.9%3 W · 101 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 9c | 160$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 16c | 155.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51c9…8825backed Yes | 17c | 143.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 16c | 142.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…3605backed Yes | 17c | 130.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 18c | 93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 22c | 82.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb333…e295backed Yes | 17c | 76.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9b…90ffbacked Yes | 30c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 77c | 27.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 69c | 21.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?this page
- Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?Yes won
- Will Jared Randall be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?No won
- Will Joel Willett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?No won
- Will Logan Forsythe be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?No won
- Will Pamela Stevenson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.