Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft (MSFT) hit $500 before 2026??
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaeb687e82c99013856d4be043e1654e02920277fd8c679f9542a112e0bd90c06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 1,200$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 22c | 1,057$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.22 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 66c | 774.3$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.33 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed Yes | 22c | 612.22$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.69 | 232 | 53.4%124 W · 108 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…0215backed No | 17c | 585.94$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.97 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 19c | 524.01$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.91 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5665…32cdbacked No | 59c | 449.12$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.56 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 77c | 304.78$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.84 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…a3fbbacked No | 80c | 265.34$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 74c | 220$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.7 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 50c | 210$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbe…b616backed No | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.33 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 78c | 205.12$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.13 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 17c | 179.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…c218backed Yes | 27c | 176.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…6d9cbacked Yes | 21c | 140$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked No | 16c | 137$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3c7fbacked No | 16c | 137$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.08 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 15c | 135.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 119.05$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x138b…0467backed No | 60c | 94$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 39c | 87.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…0c15backed Yes | 23c | 78.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked No | 29c | 58.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 68c | 51.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 75 | 77.3%58 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…36fdbacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…3e11backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa998…6421backed No | 66c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e5…1c91backed Yes | 63c | 23.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d0…4d2ebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 75cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f7…f224backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db5…701ebacked No | 78c | 12.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) hit $500 before 2026??this page
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) hit $380 before 2026??No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) hit $420 before 2026??No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) hit $430 before 2026??No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) hit $455 before 2026??No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) hit $465 before 2026??Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) hit $485 before 2026??Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) hit $525 before 2026??No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) hit $555 before 2026??No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) hit $575 before 2026??No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.