Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft (MSFT) hit $525 before 2026??
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x765ef3c9bdcab51db60a787fc3a05b2b0e1486c9d34d97455dbe5189d5b37024
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 22c | 3,118$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.64 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 78c | 2,069$1,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.81 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 78c | 850$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef7…9da3backed Yes | 4c | 709$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed No | 78c | 610$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.2 | 232 | 53.4%124 W · 108 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62eb…a3b6backed Yes | 10c | 361$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 320.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 150 | 5.3%8 W · 142 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 16c | 250$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 250$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 176$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 121$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 32c | 110$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked No | 75c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) hit $525 before 2026??this page
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) hit $380 before 2026??No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) hit $420 before 2026??No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) hit $430 before 2026??No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) hit $455 before 2026??No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) hit $465 before 2026??Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) hit $485 before 2026??Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) hit $500 before 2026??No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) hit $555 before 2026??No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) hit $575 before 2026??No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.