Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the February meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77f14ed8c49228db7cc842a8db6e108a802dc84e375042ff499d290ea89de939
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7b2…e6f2backed No | 5c | 5,331$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf9…2fd7backed No | 8c | 4,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e31…43e4backed Yes | 25c | 1,101$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +297.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 11c | 1,043$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.79 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 8c | 875.26$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.59 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 9c | 539$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 9c | 521.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 8c | 504.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 450$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 8c | 431.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 6c | 401.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 389.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 5c | 326.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe004…7849backed Yes | 67c | 302.9$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 12c | 300$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 5c | 250.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 78c | 250$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.06 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed No | 7c | 226$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad47…7142backed No | 11c | 210$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 9c | 202.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed No | 15c | 124.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf312…12b4backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 29c | 68.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 73c | 66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 29c | 45.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…b788backed Yes | 74c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the February meeting?this page
- Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the February meeting?No won
- Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the February meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.