Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the February meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb10b26f9db5fbf96619b4ad976a5414a7e546b0751f446b86a4bd2913012a31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9538…a2fabacked Yes | 11c | 4,960$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fe…07bfbacked Yes | 7c | 3,930$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b2…e6f2backed Yes | 7c | 2,233$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 8c | 2,184$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.05 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57f7…efcabacked Yes | 9c | 1,181$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 9c | 676$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.91 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d3…d295backed Yes | 8c | 337.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 55c | 250$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.69 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 23c | 217.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 209.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 10c | 202.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…db04backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 6c | 176.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044e…a015backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 32c | 78.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 23cpaid | +231.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4734…0979backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the February meeting?this page
- Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the February meeting?No won
- Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the February meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.