China Taiwan · resolved market
People's Bank of China rate cut by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa849ee57742746c581f5400bb3d037bcb01bd1b66670320eb3bb9b58d13506ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $181,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x551e…a42dbacked Yes | 25c | 5,394$1,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,353.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc779…db34backed Yes | 1c | 1,699$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…0b60backed Yes | 5c | 1,666$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…75e3backed Yes | 1c | 1,110$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…ca75backed No | 72c | 1,035$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 16c | 927.46$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.8 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x294a…bbbabacked No | 80c | 800$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 19c | 737.5$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.79 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…8c27backed No | 74c | 729.98$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…e7d1backed No | 79c | 629.86$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…00a3backed Yes | 17c | 548.5$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 19c | 518.29$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.55 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 446.06$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.55 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -7.5wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 3c | 438.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 410.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 8c | 399.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95dd…90ecbacked Yes | 17c | 397.92$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 12c | 384.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 345$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 12c | 326.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 76c | 319.99$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 20c | 304.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 269.4$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d6…f94abacked No | 79c | 226.67$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…eb0bbacked No | 78c | 221.84$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 5c | 217.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 17c | 216.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x115b…68efbacked Yes | 7c | 200.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 77c | 190$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 180.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa9…b027backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e58…dba7backed Yes | 18c | 132$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6b…eac6backed No | 80c | 129$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 15c | 124.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…b991backed No | 34c | 116.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +191.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e3…5c79backed Yes | 14c | 112.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…ea77backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…b701backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…3ecebacked Yes | 20c | 92.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -66%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7c…df7fbacked Yes | 15c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 79c | 87.49$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 22c | 86.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a55…a1f3backed Yes | 17c | 83.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 20c | 82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2760…ef06backed No | 77c | 81.07$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 17c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…a086backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 19c | 77.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c49…1d27backed Yes | 20c | 75.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 23c | 75.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1406…403cbacked Yes | 16c | 70.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7784…adecbacked No | 41c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…720cbacked No | 78c | 66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0353…539dbacked No | 77c | 64.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 16cpaid | +216.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…0a2ebacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 18c | 58.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc999…ca09backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed No | 76c | 47.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…499ebacked No | 40c | 45.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 49c | 42.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbb…8fa5backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…c67bbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…16e1backed No | 78c | 28.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328d…1d7fbacked No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fa…0ec8backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…2318backed No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…3371backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.