Earnings · resolved market
Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x307cb08f3dd72cf84d3f766cf6afe0d08c731805e4c03611f6e184f6e5ab47cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 8c | 5,700$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.7 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 9c | 2,070$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1698…0211backed No | 10c | 1,600$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 6c | 1,443$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.72 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…177fbacked No | 10c | 1,027$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.13 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 10c | 999.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 7c | 925.05$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.29 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…5ba0backed No | 6c | 849.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 5c | 781.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 730.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4afd…1241backed No | 5c | 699.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaf…ee69backed No | 10c | 635.32$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32bc…1dabbacked No | 8c | 623.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 6c | 542.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…906bbacked No | 7c | 539.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…121dbacked No | 6c | 490$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6b…0ad4backed No | 8c | 489.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…e5d4backed No | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62b4…31d3backed No | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 7c | 390.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb65…3115backed No | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…6a8ebacked No | 6c | 299.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fe…4b2ebacked No | 7c | 291.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e87…5b81backed No | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e4…837bbacked No | 7c | 284.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe40…30f2backed No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…7febbacked No | 21c | 234.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ac…bd9fbacked No | 7c | 231.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 7c | 228.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 5c | 214.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 6c | 203.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 9c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -62%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x76a3…5249backed No | 10c | 199.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 9c | 198.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…36b7backed Yes | 79c | 198.14$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 87 | 72.4%63 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebbd…05b4backed No | 7c | 179.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75a…49f9backed No | 10c | 168$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked No | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 9c | 148$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 8c | 147.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cda…08dbbacked No | 9c | 130.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…20f7backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x977d…0152backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 9c | 120.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…277bbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.