Earnings · resolved market
Will Walt Disney Co (DIS) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x627cbfd192283371f82649502216f6f689de883ac7f80f5ee7782ba914bb9459
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,372
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,372 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 6c | 3,100$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 768 | 37.4%287 W · 481 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe40…30f2backed No | 10c | 1,939$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 11c | 1,910$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.09 | 348 | 36.8%128 W · 220 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8429…4d32backed No | 9c | 1,678$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.41 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025d…14fcbacked No | 10c | 1,362$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b6…4eddbacked No | 22c | 1,096$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc0…dc99backed No | 8c | 1,072$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 10c | 1,001$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.86 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 8c | 995.08$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.07 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 17c | 719.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.2 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 21c | 715.86$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.98 | 332 | 25%83 W · 249 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 18c | 666.66$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 316 | 29.4%93 W · 223 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5400…1342backed No | 10c | 611.04$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 9c | 599.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked No | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 80c | 547.99$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.74 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed5…83efbacked No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2589…85e0backed No | 13c | 461.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 10c | 417.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 9c | 411.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 5c | 399.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 8c | 377.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 306 | 15%46 W · 260 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 9c | 323.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 12c | 317.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…ee92backed No | 34c | 298.86$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf702…0bbabacked No | 12c | 249.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 9c | 240.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…7690backed No | 17c | 236.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f23…90dbbacked No | 11c | 232.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed No | 14c | 212.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…790bbacked No | 10c | 205.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 11c | 200.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7f…65a2backed No | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 9cpaid | +178%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0418…966ebacked Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…7febbacked No | 21c | 187.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 9c | 165.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked No | 8c | 150.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…505cbacked No | 11c | 146.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…2937backed No | 10c | 145$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…8f65backed No | 18c | 139.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…87c2backed No | 15c | 137.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 20c | 133.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3d…7a79backed No | 15c | 119$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…36b7backed Yes | 76c | 117.65$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 87 | 72.4%63 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6b…0ad4backed No | 17c | 116.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c68…f2a8backed No | 12c | 107.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe9…17acbacked No | 9c | 107.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…bfa8backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +213.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab5…f570backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe683…8a77backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0190…afdbbacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc3…2a77backed No | 28c | 87.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 80.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 18c | 79.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 80c | 78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 213 | 41.3%88 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 76c | 77.69$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 80c | 77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 582 | 39%227 W · 355 L | -25.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…aa24backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ac…bd9fbacked No | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes | 78c | 59.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 29 | 89.7%26 W · 3 L | +7.2wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 30c | 59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 464 | 14.2%66 W · 398 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a9…a7c7backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…b21dbacked Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…bf5fbacked Yes | 78c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8f…2770backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc763…e8d3backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd47f…0e58backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.