Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2b8b3288792e43f7d8125aec3277d4e09aa076e9e621dbfc71a3a8ed010efd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $345,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $345,201 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe033…40a5backed No | 0c | 37,650$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6a…9836backed No | 0c | 30,640$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…8df9backed No | 1c | 15,116$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.16 | 60 | 5%3 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…0c7ebacked No | 1c | 12,340$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…5d90backed No | 2c | 9,641$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 1c | 5,922$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8735…46e5backed No | 2c | 5,130$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48f9…e61dbacked No | 1c | 4,185$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c6…763fbacked No | 1c | 3,575$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…d36fbacked No | 4c | 3,195$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed No | 3c | 3,148$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 2,616$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 3c | 2,236$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.63 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 3c | 2,206$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.33 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 2c | 2,110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 3c | 1,990$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.44 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7577…8fb9backed No | 2c | 1,950$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490d…127fbacked Yes | 39c | 1,758$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +157.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0a…f771backed No | 1c | 1,591$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…c079backed No | 5c | 1,570$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…c6e4backed No | 6c | 1,468$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.2 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457d…9f98backed No | 1c | 1,432$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed No | 4c | 1,402$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab2…9cfabacked No | 1c | 1,375$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…07f1backed No | 3c | 1,263$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x804e…594bbacked No | 3c | 1,206$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…7375backed No | 1c | 1,154$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fc…a467backed No | 5c | 1,104$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8a…de2fbacked No | 2c | 1,003$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 5c | 999.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 996.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9099backed No | 1c | 948.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 2c | 764.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 10c | 692$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked No | 3c | 670.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13aa…9893backed No | 3c | 606.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 7c | 453.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 13c | 422.56$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 3c | 410.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 408$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7167…0ee2backed No | 6c | 345.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5d…31b9backed No | 5c | 334.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 9c | 309.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be1…3feabacked No | 17c | 254.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 70c | 250$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 30c | 235$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 8c | 218.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x144e…a61cbacked No | 8c | 154.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b35…4a36backed No | 8c | 131.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc910…34d0backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 18c | 112.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…23c1backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 16c | 95.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 47c | 93.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting?this page
- Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the March 2026 meeting?No won
- Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the March 2026 meeting?No won
- Will the ECB announce an increase at the March 2026 meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.