Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the March 2026 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dc608984c63747ce44a2bc86b5382093619192039395af62545329f29dd7bfa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $237,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $237,187 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 14c | 22,260$3,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,084.66 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc709…5f3abacked Yes | 0c | 15,423$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 13,362$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bda…4974backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…8df9backed Yes | 0c | 8,209$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 60 | 5%3 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9f…c9c6backed Yes | 1c | 7,843$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f9…06bfbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x457d…9f98backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 4,500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 1c | 4,341$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 4,209$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 1cpaid | +511.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9959…3671backed Yes | 1c | 2,962$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 2,930$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2665…a06cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,723$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…f779backed Yes | 11c | 2,225$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6577…4401backed Yes | 1c | 1,983$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9a…b2ffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,477$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 988.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 2c | 888$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…d36fbacked Yes | 1c | 799.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 35c | 450$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5adb…4c7abacked Yes | 10c | 437.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed Yes | 8c | 410$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked Yes | 13c | 407$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed Yes | 8c | 382.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4a…6025backed Yes | 8c | 225$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5691…c593backed Yes | 14c | 208.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda7c…639bbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 8c | 183.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 9c | 168.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7474…cef7backed Yes | 10c | 138.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91bb…ae27backed Yes | 20c | 100.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6d…a962backed Yes | 41c | 50.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 80c | 15.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the March 2026 meeting?this page
- Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the March 2026 meeting?No won
- Will the ECB announce an increase at the March 2026 meeting?No won
- Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.