Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the March 2026 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dd553ce26ad6b34d87c6ab084dd0a2342bc97087d1729952773f92d85beb201
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,081 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ca9…37d1backed Yes | 0c | 13,743$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…8df9backed Yes | 1c | 11,495$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.19 | 60 | 5%3 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 8,951$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…a282backed Yes | 0c | 7,216$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…e451backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…669dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1307…bd75backed Yes | 4c | 4,957$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 49c | 3,224$1,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,576.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…d36fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f9…06bfbacked Yes | 0c | 2,817$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98dd…1114backed Yes | 4c | 2,791$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,474$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes | 5c | 2,085$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,076$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked No | 43c | 1,684$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.1 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd792…5978backed Yes | 7c | 1,679$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,652$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8a…de2fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,593$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 4c | 1,482$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 1,449$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9f…c9c6backed Yes | 2c | 1,324$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…8d38backed Yes | 1c | 1,269$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 4c | 1,192$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e59…aa0dbacked Yes | 10c | 956.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a1…dd09backed Yes | 8c | 954.68$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 7c | 798.68$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…c079backed Yes | 6c | 746$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b7…1622backed Yes | 3c | 730$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 710.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…070dbacked Yes | 8c | 640.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 6c | 600$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b21…b928backed Yes | 4c | 599.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d9…22efbacked Yes | 3c | 555.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 5c | 506.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 6c | 491.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 6c | 486.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5d…31b9backed Yes | 5c | 373.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked Yes | 5c | 322$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 7c | 301.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 6c | 294.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 4c | 245$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked Yes | 6c | 230$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 5c | 218.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd309…2d4dbacked Yes | 10c | 200.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes | 5c | 194.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 178.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 42c | 141.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the March 2026 meeting?this page
- Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the March 2026 meeting?No won
- Will the ECB announce an increase at the March 2026 meeting?No won
- Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.