TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,128
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,024

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,128 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5028…91c5backed Yes7c1,903$131 inLost-$130.871216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes8c1,553$129 inLost-$129.14323.3%10 W · 33 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes5c1,506$74 inLost-$73.615311.3%6 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-24.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x919d…60e1backed Yes13c974.37$126 inLost-$126.492828.6%8 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-43.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8de5…2b04backed No76c923.07$700 inWon+$223.072951.7%15 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+26.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes6c700$42 inLost-$42.41241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce8a…0fe6backed Yes15c659.33$100 inLost-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked No75c616.24$461 inWon+$154.8714661%89 W · 57 L+10.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed Yes5c600$27 inLost-$27.3333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick6cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes2c554.02$11 inLost-$11.22365.6%2 W · 34 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes2c532.17$12 inLost-$11.65306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+46.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0ef…39b6backed Yes5c500$25 inLost-$24.9520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-60.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes11c424$45 inLost-$44.534629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa06c…635dbacked Yes21c412.29$85 inLost-$85250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes3c405$14 inLost-$14.07306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+69.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes3c399.94$11 inLost-$10.61074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2386…1722backed Yes33c371.41$124 inLost-$123.723847.4%18 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes7c331.94$24 inLost-$24.34267.7%2 W · 24 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-76.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c299.06$16 inLost-$16.36664.5%3 W · 63 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes6c273.77$17 inLost-$16.72414.9%2 W · 39 L-6.7wins-0.16per pick21cpaid-45.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No67c236.07$159 inWon+$76.969844.9%44 W · 54 L-0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63e1…2ebabacked Yes38c213.59$82 inLost-$8250%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26f3…e6a3backed Yes36c190.62$69 inLost-$69.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed Yes20c154.79$31 inLost-$31.296451.6%33 W · 31 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9acc…42cebacked Yes49c150$74 inLost-$74.15911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick30cpaid-85.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b6c…0b29backed Yes16c150$24 inLost-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0fa…543ebacked Yes23c135.94$31 inLost-$30.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2863…20b0backed Yes10c106.36$11 inLost-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed64…7c2ebacked Yes35c102.8$36 inLost-$36.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x137a…636dbacked Yes30c95.99$28 inLost-$28.34425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa865…e799backed Yes27c85.16$23 inLost-$2310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes22c82.46$18 inLost-$18.2339116.1%63 W · 328 L-44.4wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed Yes13c78$10 inLost-$10.332737%10 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5159…03cebacked Yes27c67.78$18 inLost-$18425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-65.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No69c65.26$45 inWon+$20.24751.1%24 W · 23 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+22.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7656…194bbacked No61c50$31 inWon+$19.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0d7…ec4abacked Yes36c48.43$18 inLost-$17.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a59…c2b6backed No67c36.99$25 inWon+$12.253360.6%20 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No77c36.29$28 inWon+$8.487145.1%32 W · 39 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf019…6ba3backed No74c30$22 inWon+$7.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed No62c30$19 inWon+$11.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x101a…044dbacked No57c19.3$11 inWon+$8.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.